Iran’s missile strikes on Israel are the first step toward World War III, according to an expert in Middle Eastern relations.
Iran launched over 180 ballistic missiles toward targets in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem late Tuesday evening, with some striking buildings. Most failed to launch or were intercepted by the country’s Iron Dome defense system and by U.S. Navy destroyers stationed nearby.
The attack, which was an act of revenge, came after Israel launched an airstrike in Beirut that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and several other top Hezbollah officials.
Iran bombed Israel by sending nearly 200 ballistic missiles into Tel Aviv and Jerusalem (
Image:
AFP via Getty Images)
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility for the attack, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency: “In response to the martyrdom of Martyr Haniyeh, Seyed Hassan Nasrallah and Martyr Nilfroshan, we targeted the heart of the occupied territories.” It continued, “If the Zionist regime reacts to Iran’s operations, it will face crushing attacks.”
Dr. Sean McFate, a professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and the author of The New Rules of War: How America Can Win — Against Russia, China, and Other Threats, told TheMirror.com the conflict engulfing the region “could widen into an out-and-out war between Israel and Iran.”
He said, “We’re really at a dangerous crossroads right now in the Middle East — the most dangerous we’ve been at for a long time. We are on a path where the worst-case scenario could be something that looks a little bit like [World War III]. We’re not there right now, but we’re on the wrong path for sure.”
The attack came after Israel allegedly launched a ground invasion of Lebanon against Hezbollah targets (
Image:
AP)
Nuclear weapons holdout
Perhaps the only factor preventing the all-out escalation of the conflict in the Middle East into World War III is the general absence of nuclear weapons in most Middle Eastern countries and the unwillingness of their allies that do have nuclear weapons to use them in aiding them.
“Never say never, but I don’t think it would be a World War III because Iran does not have nuclear weapons, right?” McFate explained. “I mean, if Iran and Saudi Arabia and Israel have nuclear weapons, they could have lateral escalation, meaning that one power uses nukes and they all start to use nukes. That’s called lateral escalation. That’s not the situation.”
He said he doubts that Russia, which has been a staunch ally of Iran, would rush to Iran’s aid with nukes, just as he said it’s very unlikely the U.S. would whip out its nuclear weapons to aid Israel, a country that has nuclear weapons itself — though it’s never admitted to that.
Nuclear weapons are a factor that could actually prevent World War III amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East (
Image:
Getty Images/iStockphoto)
And Israel itself is unlikely to use nukes, McFate said, because it wouldn’t even need them to win the war against Iran. It could instead attack “soft targets,” crippling Iran’s economy and infrastructure as opposed to striking larger targets.
“Would Israel use nukes? They could. They have them. I don’t think they need to. I think they could do airstrikes on soft targets in Iran like their oil facilities, like their docks that pump oil and gas — they could destroy those,” McFate explained. “They don’t have to go after the nuclear weapons or production facilities. And those are hardened targets. There’s a lot of soft things that they could go after. So, I don’t think at this point it’s likely that it could escalate.”
He did express fears of an all-out war between Israel and Iran, however, that could rope in some other Middle Eastern countries and actors. Such a war could have a devastating impact on the international community, even if it doesn’t escalate into World War III, he said.