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Weve entered the college football home stretch.
If you think you know how the 12-team College Football Playoff is going to shake out, you should head to Vegas and drain your bank account. This has been the most unpredictable season in memory, and there are plenty of twists and turns to go.
You know this thing aint going chalk, right?
For now, Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Notre Dame, Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, Georgia, Boise State and BYU are projected in. But those cards could shuffle many, many times over the next 17 days.
Other teams such as Tennessee, SMU, Colorado, Texas A&M, Arizona State and more are still alive. Truthfully, there are far too many regular-season games remaining to talk about them all, but several marquee (and not-so-marquee) matchups could tell the tale on the playoffs.
Everything will likely turn upside-down and right-side-up before this thing is over. So, here are a handful of regular-season games remaining that you need to pay extremely close attention to, because they will have a major impact on which teams make the final 12.
Indiana at Ohio State (Saturday)
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Two top-five Big Ten teams square off Saturday in a game that will have the nations attention, but its a surprising matchup for sure.
Nobody expected the Indiana Hoosiers to be unbeaten and knocking at the College Football Playoff door this late in the season. But first-year coach Curt Cignetti has led the program to its best start ever.
All thats standing in their way are the Big Ten giant Buckeyes, who are nearly two-touchdown favorites.
If coach Ryan Days team comes out, flexes its talent muscle and lays it on thick in a lopsided win over the Hoosiers, you can bet an IU team that has played a weak schedule will take a tumble similar to what BYU did after losing to Kansas last week.
But if the Hoosiers win or even keep the game respectable, it could solidify their stance in the playoff, and youd better believe the committee will award that. Suddenly, a cupcake-laden schedule wont matter that much if they prove theyre a very good team on a very big stage.
The outcome here could determine just how many teams the conference gets in.
BYU at Arizona State (Saturday)
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We could do an entire slideshow on the number of Big 12 championship game scenarios, which, in turn, of course, impact the College Football Playoff.
The Athletics Justin Williams wrote about the myriad scenarios and the handful of teams in that conference that could make its championship game, but its too many to mention. This is almost certainly a one-bid league, so getting the Big 12 title game and winning it is vitally important.
The game that has the biggest bearing on that comes this weekend when a BYU team that still controls its own destiny heads to the desert to take on a Sun Devils team that is quietly one of the best stories in the country in Kenny Dillinghams second year.
If the Cougars pull out a win on the road and Utah beats Iowa State, theyre in the conference title game. According to Williams, the Sun Devils almost control their own destiny, too. If Colorado and Iowa State also win out, and BYU loses outmeaning it loses to ASU this Saturday and to Houston in the finaletheres a tiebreaker scenario in which Iowa State would jump Arizona State for the second-place spot against Colorado, he wrote.
Regardless, this is a massive game with big-time Big 12 championship ramifications, and winning that game is the only gateway into the playoffs, so its huge for both teams.
Penn State at Minnesota (Saturday)
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The narrative that Penn State coach James Franklin cant win the big one could be put to rest this Saturday, because a trip to Minneapolis looms huge for the fourth-ranked Nittany Lions.
Even though they close the season against Maryland, losing that one would be a shocker. However, going on the road to face a 6-4 Golden Gophers team that has experienced much better quarterback play this year with Max Brosmer under center wont be easy.
The Nittany Lions are 9-1, and while they lost to Ohio State, it was only by a touchdown. Road wins against West Virginia, Wisconsin and USC prove theyre battle-tested. But this is one that could herald a playoff spot.
While Franklin indeed needs to shake the Ohio State and Michigan monkeys off his back, the man straight-up beats those teams he should. PSU has won 29 consecutive games over regular-season opponents not nicknamed the Buckeyes or Wolverines.
If coach P.J. Flecks team can pull off a monumental upset, it almost certainly would send Penn State tumbling down the rankings and most likely all the way out of the playoff picture.
A second league loss would almost certainly eliminate the Lions from having the chance to play in the Big Ten Championship Game, and, most likely, it would knock them out of the playoffs.
They need to take care of business.
Ole Miss at Florida (Saturday)
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Ole Miss weak scheduleespecially by SEC standardsdoesnt really matter right now, because coach Lane Kiffins team is blazing hot.
An ugly home loss to an awful Kentucky team and an overtime setback against a reeling LSU team back when the Tigers were playing well are far in the College Football Playoff committees rearview mirror.
A blowout road win at South Carolina and especially a big-time home victory over Georgia a couple of weeks ago have the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately types gushing over the Rebels at this late-season juncture.
The victory parades dont need to start yet, though. They have to make a trip to the Swamp this weekend to play a Florida team that beat LSU this past weekend and now has a healthy DJ Lagway under center.
Coach Billy Napiers team is playing better football, and they could be a dangerous out in Gainesville against the Rebels, even if Ole Miss possibly has the most disruptive defense in the nation.
If they get after Lagway, they should handle business. But if something happens and Ole Miss slips up in this one, you can kiss the final 12 goodbye. They wont lose in the Egg Bowl, but this ones worth watching.
Colorado at Kansas (Saturday)
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What the Colorado Buffaloes have done in Year 2 under coach Deion Sanders is pretty special, and its right up there for feel-good Big 12 stories with BYUs resurgence and the miracles Kenny Dillingham has worked at Arizona State.
Simply put, the Buffs control their own destiny.
If they win their next two games, theyll be in the Big 12 championship game with a chance to win and get into the College Football Playoff. As poorly as Oklahoma State is playing right now, their season finale against the Cowboys isnt on this list.
But this weekends showdown with a dangerous Kansas team is.
The Jayhawks are one of the biggest disappointments in the conference this year, but they showed what they can do this past weekend when they upset BYU on the road in Provo. Coach Lance Leipolds team is explosive with Jaylon Daniels at quarterback, and they can play spoiler with the best of them.
If Colorado can survive a trip to Lawrence this weekend that could set up to be a proverbial hornets nest, folks in Boulder should get very excited. But this will not be an easy game. The oddsmakers see this as basically a toss-up with the Buffaloes less than a field goal favorite.
This is a must-watch this weekend, and while this game doesnt have any immediate impact on the playoff standings, it could go a long way in determining which Big 12 team is left standing at the end.
Georgia Tech at Georgia (Nov. 29)
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Much like several other rivalry games on this list, you may not expect too much from Georgia Tech when the opening lines come out for its game in Athens against the rival Bulldogs.
But youd better not count out coach Brent Keys team.
The Yellow Jackets thought they were playing the role of giant slayer to open the season in Ireland when they beat favorite Florida State, but that was before the Seminoles season hit the skids. They proved it wasnt a fluke a couple weeks ago when they handed Miami their first loss of the season.
Georgia is a different animal, a much more talented team with all the elite recruits Kirby Smart has stacked. If quarterback Carson Beck can build on a brilliant performance in a win against Tennessee, the Dawgs could be the favorite nobody is talking about in the playoffs.
Heres the deal: Key is a terrific Xs-and-Os schemer who will have a great game plan set up to upset UGA, and if the Dawgs get beat, there will be no playoffs. A three-loss Georgia team isnt getting in.
There are no playoff implications for the Ramblin Wreck, but the inspiration is certainly there: Beat the Bulldogs, get a much better bowl and break the hearts of your hated rivals by keeping them from the final 12. The motivation will certainly be there, and Key is a master motivator.
Miami at Syracuse (Nov. 30)
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A few weeks ago, the ACC had some of the wildest and wackiest conference championship game scenarios out there, but at this juncture, its nearly crystalized.
Now, while Clemson needs some help, the Tigers are in the proverbial clubhouse with one loss.
Heres the deal: If somehow SMU drops a game and the Mustangs, Hurricanes and Tigers all finish with one loss, Miami and SMU go to the ACC championship game. Clemson, of course, is hoping for Miami to lose one more game since Clemsons ACC season is over (with games against The Citadel and South Carolina remaining).
While its hard seeing Cam Ward and crew lose this weekend at Wake Forest where theyre a 24-point favorite, the end-of-year trip to Syracuse is rife with potholes. Quarterback Kyle McCord is capable of putting up huge numbers, and the Canes defense hasnt exactly been great this year.
Expect a shootout in that game, and so much will be on the line for Miami. If it loses either one of its final two games, its out of the playoff hunt and wont head to the ACC championship game, either.
Texas at Texas A&M (Nov. 30)
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There arent very many programs in the nation who hate each other as healthily as Texas and Texas A&M, and the two rivals renew their showdown in a couple of weeks.
Thanks to an Aggies resurgence under first-year coach Mike Elko, its a game that now has SEC Championship Game and College Football Playoff ramifications.
While A&M is on the outside looking in, the Aggies could climb back into the conversation with a massive end-of-year win over the Longhorns. Meanwhile, if coach Steve Sarkisians team gets beat, they fall back to the pack.
What if a Texas team whose best win on the year is against Vanderbilt gets upended by A&M when it matters most? Yes, the Horns are ranked third now, but thats the type of setbackwhen coupled with a lightweight schedule devoid of marquee winsthat could really hurt.
Theres nothing the Aggies would love more than to spoil Texas run and catapult them into the SEC title game.
What a story it would be if they could somehow win their way into the playoffs in Elkos first season. But the big, bad Longhorns (which look like theyre on the brink of being a yearly playoff contender) stand in the way.
Notre Dame at USC (Nov. 30)
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What kind of team are the USC Trojans now with Jayden Maiava at quarterback, now that he has replaced Miller Moss?
Obviously, they have the potential to be a lot more dangerous with the dual-threat signal-caller under center, and his abilities were on display in a 28-20 win over Nebraska in which he threw for 259 yards and a trio of touchdowns while running for another one.
But are they the type of upset-making program that could take the luck out of the Irishs playoff run? We may see.
If Notre Dame does whats expected and beats Army this weekend, it sets up a colossal rivalry game in Los Angeles against the Trojans to close the season.
Its not been the best of years for the 5-5 Trojans in their first Big Ten season, but one thing they certainly are this time of year is battle-tested. That will help them when they host the Irish, for sure.
Theyve played rugged, hard-nosed teams all year, and while they dont have the win-loss record theyd like as a result, they can win this game.
Maiava gives coach Lincoln Riley an X-factor he hasnt had this season, and if the offensive weapons break out and the defense can hold its own, this will be interesting.
Michigan at Ohio State (Nov. 30)
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The last time Ohio State beat Michigan was 2019, the last of a masterful eight-game winning streak where blowouts were the norm.
Jim Harbaugh is gone, though, and so are the days of the Wolverines being the powerhouse program in the Big Ten. The three-game winning streak is in serious jeopardy this year in Sherrone Moores first season.
As a matter of fact, if the Buckeyes (who will be heavily favored) find a way to lose, you can bet there will be plenty of Ryan Day hot-seat talk. Ohio State has a humongous test in front of it this week against Indiana, but Michigan wont go down easily.
Somehow, the Wolverines will have to manufacture enough offense to stay in the game and the defense will have to make some game-changing plays, but you can never count out one of these two teams when they meet.
This is one of the great college football rivalries, and to go ahead and ink in an Ohio State victory would be extremely premature. If the Buckeyes were to get beat in this one, making the playoffs would be very much in question, even if they beat the Hoosiers.
This would be a bad loss, and it could open the door for several other bubble teams.
