In the current political climate in the United States, history professor Allan Lichtman’s prediction of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’s victory over Donald Trump is gaining traction. Lichtman, a US election prognosticator, has become famous for correctly predicting nine of the last 10 presidential elections. In a video posted on his YouTube channel, Lichtman asserted that he still stands by his prediction, despite the increasingly fierce competition and Harris’ narrowing lead in battleground states.

Lichtman made his prediction in September, and although many polls show the candidates getting closer, he still believes in the criteria he used to draw his conclusions. Lichtman’s prediction theory does not rely on temporary opinion polls but focuses on long-term historical and political factors. This has earned him some criticism from other experts, such as Nate Silver, who have criticized Lichtman’s methods as being “arbitrary.”

What’s notable is Lichtman’s track record of accuracy. He has successfully predicted both parties, but his only inaccuracy came in the 2000 election, when he predicted Al Gore would win. Lichtman insists that while he can’t be completely certain of the future, he trusts history and the fundamentals he has studied.

In his latest 90-minute video, Lichtman expresses his concerns about American democracy, especially in light of this year’s race for the White House. He argues that factors such as governance and governance, not just the campaign, will really determine who wins. He stressed that while polls can provide useful information, they are not the only determining factor.

The crisis of confidence in polls and predicting election outcomes is a hot topic today. Lichtman pointed out that anything can happen, and unforeseen events can change the tide. “You never know when something catastrophic and unprecedented is going to happen that will disrupt the historical pattern,” he said. This reflects the uncertainty many voters feel heading into the election.

In addition to his concerns about the election, Lichtman also expressed his own anxiety. He described feeling like he had “a flock of crows in his stomach,” which reflects the psychological pressure he faces before each election. Intensive preparation and research cannot completely erase his worries about the future of American democracy.

Overall, Professor Allan Lichtman’s predictions are not just a simple analysis of the upcoming election, but also a wake-up call for voters and Americans about the current political situation. Regardless of the final outcome, he has created a space for discussion about the factors that influence the election, while emphasizing the importance of participating in the democratic process. An election is not just a political event, but also an expression of people’s aspirations and trust in the system.

A proper assessment of the situation and the factors that influence the election is more necessary than ever. While many people may rely on polls to draw conclusions, Lichtman encourages people to look beyond, to the deeper changes in the political and social landscape. This can help create a more comprehensive view of the future and the opportunities it brings for both candidates and voters.

With Kamala Harris and Donald Trump becoming the two main contenders in the upcoming election, Lichtman’s predictions will likely continue to be closely watched. Even as factors change, his determination to stick to his predictions will make people interested in how he analyzes and assesses the political landscape. By focusing on history and long-term factors, Lichtman is creating an important conversation about the stability and future of American democracy.