I regret to inform you, as I do every year, that Your Favorite NBA Team™ will not win the 2024-25 championship.

Stinks to learn, right? Math always does.

Sure, some team has to raise next season’s banner. Statistically speaking, it won’t be Your Favorite NBA Team. The field is larger. It is better. Your Favorite NBA Team sucks. And so on.

Now, for the annual disclaimer: I do not actually despise or have agendas against Your Favorite NBA Team. I still root for chaos—for warp-speed fast breaks, premature celebrations, infinitesimally small lineups, all-time #MuscleWatch claims, no-look skip passes, voodoo handles, guys who think they have voodoo handles and don’t but play like they do anyway, meme-able reaction faces and the like.

For the purposes of this exercise, though, I absolutely hate Your Favorite NBA Team while simultaneously loving Everybody Else’s Favorite NBA Team™. Your Favorite NBA Team’s season will not end with a championship banner. That honor is more likely to belong to Literally Anybody Else’s Favorite NBA Team™.

Allow me to explain why.

In a Nutshell: Cooper Flagg isn’t walking through that door until 2025-26, and when he finally does, it won’t even be for you.

It’s a tale as old as time, a song as old as rhyme: The Atlanta Hawks are the aggressively middling champs of the East.

Shipping out Dejounte Murray for picks, Larry Nance Jr. and Dyson “Can He Score Outside Floater Range?” Daniels fast-tracks this team’s path to the middle of the bottom-most middle.

To be fair, keeping Murray would have done the same thing. The Hawks were—and are—basically trapped. That tends to happen when your C-Suite is more focused on preserving their portion of revenue sharing rather than fielding a competitive product.

Don’t worry, though, Hawks fans. This season will not be for naught. You will find meaning and purpose and salvation in lecturing the clouds about how Trae Young is actually an OK defender, and about why it’s a good thing Zaccharie Risacher is forfeiting crunch-time reps to De’Andre Hunter and Vit Krejčí, and about how this is the year Jalen Johnson both averages more than 15 minutes per game and makes north of 60 appearances.

At the end of it all, you’ll have been treated to a 30-something-win product, as well as the chance to watch the San Antonio Spurs make or trade your first-round pick. What a time to be alive.

In a Nutshell: Repeating is so 2018.

A reigning NBA champion has not successfully defended its title since the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors. This converts to approximately 76 years in basketball math.

Boston Celtics fans will think their team is the exception. “We,” they will say, even though they weren’t on the court, “just won 64 games! We lost just three times throughout the entire playoffs! And that was with Kristaps Porziņģis barely playing! We can survive without him until the calendar flips to 2025! And then he will be well rested for the repeat run!“

So we’re sure the big-man rotation can hold up? Like, Al Horford is 38.

“We have Luke Kornet!“

Yeah, but—

“And Xavier Tillman!“

Right, except—

“Neemias Queta!“

Okay, however—

“Baylor Scheierman!“

He’s not a cent—

“Jaden Springer can be traded straight up for Walker Kessler, so long as Utah sends a first!”

Even if you’re not worried about durability up front, championship hangovers are real. And the Celtics just had Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and Jayson Tatum go through the Olympics. Maybe you actually believe Tatum is fresher than before, because Steve Kerr is a hater. The point stands. This group has played a lot of basketball over the past year-plus, and the East should be better. Boston is clearly screwed.

In a Nutshell: Common sense is a thing.

I am not sure who needs to hear this, but the Brooklyn Nets did not re-acquire control over their next two first-round picks to win more games than Anybody Else’s Favorite NBA Team™.

This organization is more likely to bring Cooper Flagg in for a covert January uniform-fitting than sniff 30 victories. If the Nets are better than expected, general manager Sean Marks won’t let it stand.

Players will be traded. Injuries to imaginary body parts will appear on the pregame report. Cam Thomas will play center. Day’Ron Sharpe will run point. Ben Simmons will be promoted to social media manager. Bojan Bogdanović will defend the point of attack. Nicolas Claxton will only be permitted to take step-back, off-handed, 37-foot floaters.

Controlled demolition is the right call for the Nets’ long-term future. Immediately, it is a boon for Everybody Else’s Favorite Team’s title odds.

In a Nutshell: Let’s see them sniff full strength for an extended period of time first.

The Charlotte Hornets have a roster that profiles as friskier than advertised. They have real NBA depth, along with a handful of interesting players and potential cornerstones at both ends of the floor.

Obliterating expectations will require pristine health from LaMelo Ball and, probably, Mark Williams. We are beyond the ability to actively bank on that. Williams is already set to miss the start of training camp with a left foot issue. Even after overhauling the medical staff, LaMelo may be more likely to finish the season on the sidelines wearing a ankle-to-thigh brace than appear in 70 games.

Procuring extra-strength rose-colored goggles allows us to see this team through a different lens.

A healthier LaMelo here; a jump from Brandon Miller there; a return to form for sickos-favorite Cody Martin stage left; some quicker development than expected from Tidjane Salaun off to the side; a long-awaited-and-still-improbable leap from Josh Green over yonder; and poof!

Charlotte might just have a contender on its hands…for the play-in tournament, that is.

In a Nutshell: Banners traditionally aren’t hung for generational incompetence.

Nothing quite says “We have very little idea, if any, what we’re doing” than losing Alex Caruso, Andre Drummond and DeMar DeRozan in the same offseason and acquiring zero first-round draft equity as part of their exits.

Josh Giddey is this team’s biggest addition. If Chicago Bulls fans enjoy rooting for mildly-inefficient triple-double watches in double-digit losses, they’re going to love him.

On the bright side, the Bulls clearly don’t fancy themselves contenders. On the not-so-bright side, there’s a not-insignificant chance that they actually do, that the disconnect between the C-Suite and real life is only mushrooming, and the team will be forced to act accordingly.

Who needs to experiment with more on-ball reps for Matas Buzelis, Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu when you can watch defenses go under screens against Giddey? Or when you can force-feed Nikola Vučević elbow touches?

Never mind title contention. Exceeding expectations for this team consists of actualizing the fun kind of bad.

In a Nutshell: This team peaked in 2022-23.

We could chalk the Cleveland Cavaliers’ halted trajectory last year to injuries, progress not being linear and, frankly, hyperbole. After all, they did win a playoff series. That’s technically progress in itself.

Or maybe, just maybe, this team topped out in 2022-23, when its Core Four was better together but still flawed, ultimately incapable of generating enough offense to edge out a New York Knicks squad whose own best offense was a missed shot.

Evan Mobley may very well shoot more threes. Hell, he almost assuredly will. But we needn’t pretend 2.7 three-point attempts per game from someone defenses won’t guard that far out will matter.

Improvement to Mobley’s handle would go a longer way. Good luck carving out those reps for him while juggling usage for Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, the latter of whom averages more shots to the face than points per 36 minutes.

Regardless of how much actual progress the Cavs make, they’ll almost assuredly end up at a point in which one of their top-four players isn’t a natural crunch-time or best-lineup-in-the-playoffs fit. That is…not ideal.

In a Nutshell: The third-best player throne will fluctuate nightly.

On the surface, the Dallas Mavericks followed an NBA Finals trip by deepening their offensive optionality while preserving the defense. Derrick Jones Jr. could be missed, but the blow is theoretically softened, if not erased entirely, by adding Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall and Quentin Grimes.

Counterpoint: This isn’t 2018.

Thompson is 34, with two serious leg injuries in his rear view. Sustaining average or better defense when he plays with Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving will ask a lot of Dereck Lively II or Daniel Gafford (generally fine) and P.J. Washington (generally less fine).

Subbing in Grimes or Marshall helps with the defensive logistics. It will come at an offensive cost. Complicated still, the Mavs don’t exactly have a third reliable ball-handler. I have seen and heard subsets of the #MFFL brigade talk themselves into Thompson helping out here. Leaning on him to create for himself, or others, or just generally dribble, and also feeling good about that dependence would be, um, a choice.

Granted, I understand the urge to seek out alternatives to Jaden Hardy, Dante Exum and Spencer Dinwiddie. That doesn’t mean viable ones exist. And if you’re galaxy-braining your way to scenarios in which Washington fills that void by punishing mismatches, driving into efficient floaters and banging in threes—all on a consistent basis—I recommend you first seek out consultations from a Charlotte Hornets fan.

In a Nutshell: Scared money doesn’t hang banners. Or something.

Letting Kentavious Caldwell-Pope walk under the guise of second-apron restrictions and clearing the way for Christian Braun, Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther to assume larger roles continues to rank among this past offseason’s most gargantuan farces.

The latter logic holds incredibly little weight. Keeping KCP and prioritizing development are not mutually exclusive undertakings. If the dynamic between head coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth isn’t peachy keen enough to juggle those two agendas, well, then that’s a whole other issue—and not a justifiable enough excuse.

Touting the limitations of the second apron is even more ridiculous. Spare us the “Other teams are running scared too!” trope. You have Nikola Jokić in his prime. Pay KCP, one of your five most important players, and figure out the rest later, dammit.

And by the way, you have so far parlayed this additional roster flexibility into Dario Šarić at the mini mid-level and Russell Westbrook on a contract he could have signed with you anyway. I look forward to the Nuggets using seconds to lop off Šarić’s player option year next summer.

Oh, yeah, Westbrook. Adding him to buoy the second unit is a totally risk-free, no-downside proposition. We don’t have years and teams worth of evidence to the contrary or anything. Great work, Denver.

In a Nutshell: Not being built to lose doesn’t mean you’re built to win.

Putting any sort of championship stock in the 2024-25 Detroit Pistons is a cry for help.

For starters, it implies that they will win a first-round postseason series, among many other outlandish things. And seeing the Pistons play basketball past April would just be weird for everybody.

Delve a little deeper, and you can see the skeleton of a team with better spacing around Cade Cunningham. The issue: That spacing comes from exactly zero of their top-four prospects.

Cunningham and Jalen Duren are the most intuitive fits of Detroit’s five-man core. Jaden Ivey, Ron Holland and Ausar Thompson, on the other hand, are a weird mix of non-shooting redundancies.

The Pistons should nevertheless feel obligated to play four or five of them together for protracted stretches. I mean, what exactly are we doing here if they don’t? Mapping out a future in which so many of their most important players must be staggered while nuking their individual trade value in the process?

Any semi-responsible long-term approach will still culminate in oodles of losses. Actually #GoingForIt won’t do the same, but let’s be real, it’ll come pretty damn close.

In a Nutshell: “Trades are hard.” -Mike Dunleavy Jr., probably, pretending to care about what’s left of the Stephen Curry era.

Congratulations to the Golden State Warriors. They win the Academy Award for Best Offseason Actor thanks to their performance in the weeks-long feature “A Play-In Candidate Pretending as if They Are Prepared to be Something More.”

Pursuits of Paul George and Lauri Markkanen are viewed as proof they’re ready and willing to swing for material upgrades in service of Steph’s remaining window. These overtures, notably, were also unsuccessful…and felt entirely superficial.

Golden State reportedly never came close to prying Markkanen from the Utah Jazz before his renegotiate-and-extend nuked that possibility. And though the Warriors apparently believed they were viable candidates for George, their conviction is tough to take seriously when the Los Angeles Clippers…preferred to let him walk for nothing other than wiggle room beneath the apron.

Unconvincing much?

Even if this is a gross misread of the situation, championship equity doesn’t improve because you almost sort of made a big move.

Exchanging Chris Paul and Klay Thompson, essentially, for Kyle Anderson, Buddy Hield and De’Anthony Melton is a potential net positive. Steph is still, in many ways, Steph. The Dubs can hope for progress from Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis.

In what world is that enough to go from 10th in the Western Conference to actual contender? Especially given the undersized, maybe undermanned, state of the center position? Seriously. I’m asking. Because it’d be cool to live there.

For now, we live here, where the Warriors are caught in a weird gray area, not just outside the contender’s clique, but, you might say, lightyears away from it.

In a Nutshell: Come talk to us in 2025-26.

Clowning on the Houston Rockets is difficult. Sure, nobody from the organization has yet to inform Jalen Green the season starts before March 1. And OK, the Dillon Brooks shot-diet epiphany may not be forever.

There’s still no denying this team is stuh-acked—so much so you wonder whether they have enough minutes to go around.

Juggling depth is a good problem to have. It’s a bit more finicky when you’re talking about developmental depth.

Amen Thompson impressed with what he did away from the ball on offense last year. Is that his perma-role? And can it work alongside Alperen Şengün if both remain relative non-threats from the perimeter?

Do the Rockets have the space to give Thompson initiator reps? So many of their top guys—Fred VanVleet, Cam Whitmore, Jabari Smith Jr., even to some extent Jalen Green—are at home operating off-ball. But you don’t want that to be their entire identity.

And where, pray tell, does Reed Sheppard fit into it all? He is another player who doesn’t need the ball, but you’d still like to see what he can do with it.

Once more: This is an excellent issue to have. But ambiguous pecking orders don’t lend themselves to championship contention. Houston is a team to watch ahead of 2025-26, coming off another year of information and, potentially, absurd offseason flexibility.

In a Nutshell: Properly sized wings matter.

Making it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals last season did nothing to dispel the notion that the Indiana Pacers need a bigger wing—someone who can capably, if not effectively, tussle with the league’s premier assignments, unburdened by the size limitations that restrict Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith and T.J. McConnell. In the face of this persisting need, the team…added a bunch of centers.

This is, of course, an oversimplification of the Pacers’ situation. That doesn’t make it wrong.

Giving Pascal Siakam more of those responsibilities will threaten to undermine Indy’s already shaky presence on the defensive glass. Jarace Walker is, it seems, going to be developed in the vein of a wing. But will he even play for a team with immediate aspirations? And equally important, will he be good?

Indiana can continue to overwhelm with its offense, particularly if a healthy Bennedict Mathurin elevates rather than complicates matters. And the team does have a couple of core-lineup combinations that should hold their own on defense.

In the aggregate, though, this feels like a group that has taken the value and safety of continuity—as well as its apparent affinity for the James Wisemans and Jahlil Okafors of the world—a step or three too far.

In a Nutshell: *gestures wildly toward everything except the Intuit Dome’s toilets*

Allowing Paul George to leave for nothing was never going to improve the Los Angeles Clippers’ championship chances. It doesn’t matter how you feel about his character or his topsy-turvy playoff performances. The kindest interpretation of his departure is that it’s organizational catharsis. When that emotional soothing overlaps with major talent reduction, it rarely translates well on the court.

The Clippers should be fairly frisky on defense—and, as a result, more aggressive in transition. They have not elided fast breaks over the years, to be sure. But they haven’t really played at higher speeds for long enough stretches, either.

Landing Derrick Jones Jr. and Kris Dunn renders them more disruptive and athletic as well as younger. Bringing back Nicolas Batum recaptures a stabilizing force.

Kawhi Leonard’s life on defense should get a lot easier as a result…if he plays…which he may not. He enters training camp dealing with a right knee issue. Timeline transparency has never been a hallmark of these setbacks, so naturally, we don’t have a firm hold on when he’ll be good to go.

Once he is cleared, the offense could be choppy. The Clippers are currently set up to spam James Harden heliocentrism—a far less enticing venture when he’s 35 and not as much of a threat to reach the basket.

Head coach Tyronn Lue has a knack for guiding shorthanded squads beyond expectations. But there’s a difference between upending a 37-to-43 win ceiling and entering legitimate title contention. The Clippers, as currently constructed, have neither the talent nor assets to go about bridging that gap.

In a Nutshell: Their biggest offseason acquisition doesn’t wear a uniform.

JJ Redick may turn out to be a terrific head coach. That’s not tongue-in-cheek. His perspective on basketball as a podcaster was genuinely fascinating, and he has said all of the right things since getting the gig. Most recently, on what turned out to be the final episode of The Lowe Post, because Disney apparently hates paying for great basketball coverage, Redick re-emphasized the importance of movement and spacing and corner crashing and empowering Anthony Davis

Buzzwords and phrases that yield minimal substance? Possibly. But they could be something more. And to Redick’s credit, his plan to stick with last year’s best starting five is evidence he deserves some benefit of the doubt.

In the end, though, there is no escaping reality.

The Lakers are working off anomalous joint availability from both Davis and LeBron James. All that got them was a first-round exit—by way of the play-in tournament. They have responded to that with the hiring of a new head coach, championing the developmental possibilities for Max Christie, Dalton Knecht, Bronny James and a 26-year-old Austin Reaves and…doing basically nothing else.

Deluded diehards continue to espouse how a healthier Jarred Vanderbilt and Gabe Vincent are basically their own free-agent additions. That’s totally cool if you ignore their offensive limitations, or if you secretly root for mid-April offseasons.

But in the context of entering title contention or even the running for a top-six spot in the West? That framing is nowhere near strong enough to rewrite the good-not-great-and-maybe-actually-not-even-good reality into which the Lakers have settled.

In a Nutshell: Injury bugs love to hate them.

Every team is at the behest of health. But the Memphis Grizzlies are a special brand of snake-bitten. Last year was a nightmare of inconsistent availability. This season is shaping up to feature more of the same.

GG Jackson II is going to miss extensive time following right foot surgery. Vince Williams Jr. will be out at least a month with a stress reaction in the upper part of his left shin. History suggests some combination of Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard will miss time.

Overlook the current and prospective health concerns, and the Grizzlies are still left with a ton of question marks.

Does the Smart fit pan out? Do they have enough wing depth to navigate injuries and functional limitations? Is there enough shooting to open up the half-court offense? Do we really just assume they’re going to lean heavily on a rookie big man (Zach Edey), and that it’s all going to be hunky-dory and without issue?

Memphis should no doubt be better than its 27-win campaign last season. But its return to the fringes of title contention, let alone the heart of it, is nowhere near assured.

In a Nutshell: Teams around them got better. They didn’t.

The Philadelphia 76ers added Paul George (and also the Miami Heat’s own Caleb Martin.) The New York Knicks bagged both Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns. The Orlando Magic doubled-down on hellacious defense and added some offensive stretch in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The Milwaukee Bucks hit the minimum-contract lottery. The Boston Celtics continue to exist.

As for the Heat, they did a whole lot of nothing. Their improvement must come internally, namely from Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Haywood Highsmith, with better availability from 35-year-old Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro. They also added Kel’el Ware, a rookie who might, potentially, if they’re lucky, be able to play beside fellow big man Bam Adebayo. Oh, and who can forget getting to go through a training-camp integration with Terry Rozier?

Miami’s devoutists will argue this equates to, like, three All-Star acquisitions, especially when you factor in the effects of #HeatCulture.

What could possibly go wrong?

Loads of things, actually. Most of them are familiar. Butler is getting older, and the squad’s injury issues may not suddenly dissipate. Is this team built to be meaningfully better on offense? Without compromising the defense?

Counting on internal development is fine. But the Heat aren’t unique in that arena. The Magic, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers will all be doing the same—and arguably at a much higher level.

Could the Heat be better? Absolutely. There’s also the chance that they’re worse, that they’re fading, and that this season is more likely to mark the end of the Butler era than the continuation of it.

In a Nutshell: I didn’t know they gave out coupons for ankle surgery.

Khris Middleton undergoing dual-ankle surgeries over the offseason is a microcosm of the Milwaukee Bucks’ entire existence—a stark reminder that their core is getting older and more fragile.

Continued dominance when they all play together remains the most potent (and accurate) rebuke. Damian Lillard and head coach Doc “Is There Anything More Difficult And Noble Than Making Millions Of Dollars To Take Over A Good NBA Team Midseason?” Rivers are no longer newcomers. Chemistry should grow amid familiarity. These Bucks could be entering their Proving The Haters Wrong Era.

They could also be entering their Scouring The Internet For Surgical Promo Codes era. Middleton receives a lion’s share of the scrutiny, but Lillard is 34, Brook Lopez is 36 and Giannis Antetokounmpo has finished each of the past two postseasons on the injury list.

Ignore all of that, and you still have to ask yourself: Was this team really one Malik Beasley-for-Gary Trent Jr. swap, Taurean Prince and Delon Wright away from winning it all last year? “Debatable” is the most accurate answer. “Hell no lol” carries more potential validity than you’d prefer.

In a Nutshell: This season doesn’t care about next season’s (and beyond’s) spreadsheet.

Following a summer in which the Minnesota Timberwolves received heaps of praise for not running scared from their payroll, they immediately decided to sprint terrified from their payroll.

Turning Karl-Anthony Towns into Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo is less about this year and more about the future. The move saves Minnesota money now, but the real flexibility comes next summer. Randle has a player option, and the Wolves can wipe his salary from the ledger if he declines it. They can then proceed to pay DiVincenzo, Naz Reid (player option) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (unrestricted) next summer for (likely) less combined money than KAT earns in 2025-26 ($53.1 million).

That’s a justifiable decision to make in a vacuum. It’s a curious one to act on now, one year out from free agency for NAW, Naz and Rudy Gobert (player option), when you just made the Western Conference Finals. Logic dictates you give the group that got you there one more chance, after futzing and fiddling elsewhere (aka Rob Dillingham).

Many portray this as more of a basketball move. Towns, after all, is dominant at his peak and mercurial, if detrimental, at his worst.

And yet, if you’re expecting Randle to offer much more certainty, I can only presume you’ve checked out on New York Knicks basketball for large swathes of the last half-decade. Yes, he has made two All-NBA squads and offers more on-ball creation. But the lows are low, and there’s no guarantee he will be as plug-and-play as KAT on the offensive end.

Making this deal about DiVincenzo is fine. The three-point volume and movement will be a boon for a largely meh offense. But DiVincenzo is coming off one of the best three-point shooting seasons in league history—an outlier for both the record books and himself. You can’t just Sharpie that in as his new normal. And even if you can, how excited can you be about his arrival when he’s not guaranteed a spot in the closing lineup?

Minnesota took a flawed contender and a stick of dynamite and turned into a contender that is still speckled with question marks and less familiar. This may play out well for its cap sheet. Its basketball product is a different story.

In a Nutshell: [Angrily pointing at the depth chart.] “What is this?! A center for ants?” –Derek Zoolander

Optimists will insist everyone is overreacting about the New Orleans Pelicans’ center situation, and that they’re not high enough on Zion Williamson-as-the-lone-big arrangements. They could be right.

They’re almost definitely not.

Herb Jones, Javonte Green and, to lesser extents, Brandon Ingram and Trey Murphy can pitch in and insulate Zion against too many center responsibilities on the defensive end. Is that wear and tear you want to put them on all year, though?

A physical toll will also inevitably be extracted from Zion in those setups anyway. And if there’s anything we know about him, it’s that this won’t be an issue and he’ll finish the season totally healthy.

Hold out hope for a trade—or contributions from Yves Missi and Karlo Matković. Where is this deal? What’s the outgoing money?

Ingram’s future is billowing in the wind, awkwardly and haphazardly, all the while. He is not only entering a contract year, but the Pelicans added another player ahead of him in the ball-handling pecking order (Dejounte Murray). That tickets him for a role he’s even less qualified to play than the one he manned when New Orleans was at full strength last year.

Portraying this as lineup optionality is Grade A pretzel-twisting. The Pelicans don’t so much have options as they are being shoehorned into playing lineups that are tantalizing as alternatives but may neither be sustainable nor effective enough as a primary identity.

In a Nutshell: Emptying the trade-asset cupboard for a bunch of players who will combine to make fewer than two All-Star appearances on your team feels fraught.

Over the past nine months, the New York Knicks have basically turned Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, up to six first-round picks and one swap into OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns. That’s likely universes from franchise malpractice, but surrendering all of your best trade chips for three players who will, in all likelihood, never contend for All-NBA honors wearing your jersey isn’t exactly ingenious.

Painting this as the Knicks going for it around Jalen Brunson is the correct interpretation. Going for what, though? Higher-end placement in preseason power rankings? Mission accomplished.

This roster has the makings of a genuine contender. That matters. It is also inextricably tethered to a bunch of non-guarantees.

Can Bridges or KAT be the second-best player on a title team? Or even just the second-best offensive player on said squad? Does this team have enough surrounding defensive talent to deploy KAT at the 5 and stick to head coach Tom Thibodeau’s core principles? What happens when offenses try attacking both Towns and Jalen Brunson in pick-and-rolls? Does a more aggressive scheme stand a better chance of working out?

Some of the defensive concerns are mitigated by the offensive ceiling—which may be limitless. Nobody on this team has ever played within a better spacing environment. The Knicks will light it up.

Will their depth also get lit up? Anunoby, Towns and Mitchell Robinson are not billboards for durability. The latter is already out until December or January (at least) following ankle surgery. Hart, Bridges and Brunson are iron men. Will Thibs find them enough breathers during the regular season so they don’t keel over in the playoffs?

We play the games for a reason. If everything possible breaks right, these Knicks could win it all. The problem is, they haven’t assembled a team, insofar as one exists, worthy of glossing over its faults and pitfalls. For as ecstatic (or conflicted) as fans are now, there is a not-insignificant chance New York just incinerated its asset base—and future payroll—for offseason pomp and circumstance and not a whole lot else.

In a Nutshell: They didn’t trade for Daniel Gafford at last season’s trade deadline.

So many preseason prognosticators are going to pick the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the Western Conference—and perhaps the 2025 NBA Finals. Everybody else will know better.

Touting depth and youth only hides so much of the truth. Kids don’t win championships. Or something. And this franchise isn’t as innovative and clever as they’re cracked up to be.

Their depth is abundant but almost to the point of incoherence. Who plays when? And for how long? Mark Daigneault spends too much time on the sidelines with a furrowed brow and squinting eyes, looking like John Stockton finally discovered science. The Thunder are also paying career-backup center Isaiah Hartenstein a top-50 salary because their actual center is anti-dumbbells. Sam Presti is clearly better at negotiating trades than contracts.

Speaking of trades: Victory-lapping around after acquiring Alex Caruso for Josh Giddey is cool and invites likes and reposts retweets. It’s not that much of a feat when you consider brokering deals with the Chicago Bulls is a lot like stealing candy from an unmanned bowl on someone’s doorstep with a sign Scotch-taped to the front that reads “Take whatever you like  Happy Halloween!”

Adding Caruso is a home run for a perimeter defense that didn’t need one, and a single-to-double for an offense that could use his spacing but pines harder for shot creation. Oklahoma City will point out that Holmgren or Jalen Williams will grow into checking the latter box. That’s not a given. We haven’t seen enough of Holmgren on-ball to make that claim. And Jalen Williams looked more like Buck Williams trying to play as the Mo Williams of Alondes Williamses during the Dallas Mavericks series.

Presti and Co. have contingencies for their contingencies and still boast the assets to make a multitude of moves should they deem it necessary. That’s been true essentially since Presti learned you can trade for draft picks. And invariably, each year, the Thunder stand pat or trade for the chance to force Gordon Hayward into retirement instead of obvious championship difference-maker Daniel Gafford and hope that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can ferry the good-sometimes-great-not-yet-great-enough roster around him to heights they aren’t ready to reach.

In a Nutshell: Defense without offense doesn’t win championships.

Do you remember the last time the Orlando Magic churned out a league-average offense?

The year was 2011-12. Andrew Bynum was an All-Star. Rajon Rondo led the league in assists per game. The Detroit Pistons were, well, they were still the Detroit Pistons, just not as deep into their tenure as these Detroit Pistons.

Paolo Banchero was in fourth grade.

Smacked in the face with this reality and fresh off their first playoff appearance since 2020, the Magic elected to do…a little bit more than a bare minimum.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s arrival boosts the spacing. It is not a panacea. Orlando ranked 22nd in offensive efficiency last season, a finish fueled by lackluster three-point volume (27th) and efficiency (25th) as well as inconsistent pacing and a shot-creation deficit. You don’t remedy all of that with a 31-year-old career glue guy.

Fear not, though, Magic fans. Because, for some reason, we’re just supposed to buy into Banchero leveling up his sub-ideal efficiency and Franz Wagner suddenly hitting enough jumpers again while trusting that president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman will eventually add a real floor general and/or off-the-dribble shot-maker once he has enough information on what’s already in place, since making the playoffs and then bowing out of them exactly as we all knew they would apparently doesn’t count as enough information.

In a Nutshell: Paul George is subtraction by addition, in Norman Powell’s completely unbiased opinion.

Pretty much everyone has extolled the Philadelphia 76ers offseason to no end. They poached George from the Los Angeles Clippers while piecing together a real, actual rotation around him, Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.

Except, did they really?

Powell called George’s exit from the Los Angeles Clippers addition by subtraction. Clearly, the Clippers wanted him to leave. That makes his arrival in Philly subtraction by addition. It’s simple math.

And as for this depth around the stars so many are commending, do we just not care about the primary frontcourt slot next to Embiid? George, Caleb Martin, Kelly Oubre Jr., Guerschon Yabusele and K.J. Martin will all, as of now, have to lend a helping hand at the 4. Should-be contenders definitely like heading into the season with people wondering whether they should start Yabusele and bring Martin and Oubre off the bench.

This says nothing of the house of cards on which the Sixers’ Big Three is built.

George is entering his age-34 season and has averaged over 25 absences per year the past half-decade. Embiid turned 30 last March, has averaged 23 absences since 2019-20 and is coming off a campaign in which a left knee injury limited him to just 39 appearances. Philly’s primary guard options after Maxey are Oubre, 38-year-old Kyle Lowry, 35-year-old Eric Gordon and 34-year-old Reggie Jackson.

If by some miracle this team is healthy upon reaching the playoffs, can the Sixers count on George and Embiid consistently performing up to snuff at the same time? Their status as superstars implies “Yes, duh.” Their postseason track records tell a different tale.

In a Nutshell: So. Many. Non-wings.

Nabbing Tyus Jones at the minimum is potentially the biggest steal of the offseason. It has also exacerbated the Phoenix Suns’ iffy wing situation.

Jones presumably did not accept a massive pay cut without a promise to start and, more critically, close games. And if he’s a staple in crunch-time units, the Suns ostensibly have four locks: him, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant.

Filling that fifth spot is an exercise without a perfect endgame. Does Phoenix default to Jusuf Nurkić? Will head coach Mike Budenholzer lean instead on Durant in the middle? Can a 36-year-old KD handle that responsibility in higher volume?

Equally important: Will there be a real benefit to KD-at-the-5 arrangements? When they may only leave room for one wing? And when your “wing” options consist of Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale, Josh Okogie and rookie Ryan Dunn, a list that generously stretches the interpretation of who qualifies as a wing?

These mental gymnastics get even more harrowing when considering the alternatives.

Defaulting to Nurkić will leave some combination of Beal, Booker and Durant ferrying defensive responsibilities for which they won’t be ideally fit most of the time. Do the Suns have to bench Jones when it matters most? Or Beal? Is there someone who becomes available on the trade block they can realistically acquire within the constraints of the second apron?

And, oh, aren’t we overdue for a Kevin Durant trade request? It’s been over a year. Or did we kind of, sort of get one and just not fully realize it?

The tl;dr version of the non-nutshell case boils this all down to one question: Are the 2024-25 Suns more likely to spectacularly combust or win the title? Answer honestly, and you’ll have properly braced yourself for the teardown that follows in February or next summer.

In a Nutshell: Having concepts for loose outlines of unfinished blueprints for a plan isn’t something about which to brag.

Nothing says “We’re prepared to see this rebuild through” like jettisoning a 2024 lottery pick (Bub Carrington) and 2029 first-rounder for a player more conducive to winning now than later.

Indeed, this past draft class didn’t engender much fanfare. And sure, the Portland Trail Blazers have 2029 first-round picks to spare—three of them, in fact. Giving up the second-most favorable of their own, Boston’s or Milwaukee’s selection hardly constitutes stupidity. And yes, Deni Avdija is 23, fills a need as a two-way wing and is just starting a four-year bargain-bin extension that declines in salary and won’t have him hit free agency until 2028.

It is starting to sound like congratulations are in order. So let’s give them.

Congrats to you, Portland, on acquiring someone who won’t extend off his current number if he pans out and will instead be up for a mega deal just when you’re just starting to get good enough to contend for something special and who you will in turn have to trade so that you can bankroll inevitable second contracts for Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson and Donovan Clinghan. That’s two first-round picks and Malcolm Brogdon well-spent.

Another separate round of congratulations is in order for the Blazers front office also managing to assemble a roster that might be competent defensively; isn’t good enough as currently constructed to sniff the play-in; isn’t bad enough as currently constructed to juice proximity to Cooper Flagg; includes a kajillion centers; and could feasibly begin the season with two of Clingan, Henderson and Sharpe coming off the bench, despite not being good enough as currently constructed to sniff the play-in or bad enough as currently constructed to juice proximity to Cooper Flagg. High-fives and cool-person nods all around.

In a Nutshell: Your defining offseason acquisition is a ball-dominant, non-floor-spacing 35-year-old.

Despite the continued moaning and groaning about the Sacramento Kings needing at least one more stopper (which, by the way, they do), they also needed an offensive infusion—someone else who can self-create and table-set against set defenses and actually get to the foul line.

DeMar DeRozan addresses all of these issues. The thing is, he arguably creates more.

Demand national media members like myself consider ball and body movement and staggering patterns as an antidote to spatial redundancies all you like. That plus an industrial-sized bottle of Jergens will give you the resources necessary to power through the inevitable disappointment.

Minutes with DeRozan and Domantas Sabonis on the floor could be particularly cramped. They combined to nail 108 threes last season. That would have tied for 109th in total long-range makes.

Put another way: Together, they provide about the same level of floor-spacing and efficiency as Caris LeVert. Does that sound like $65-plus million well-spent to you?

And let’s not discount the disaster scenarios on defense. Certain fans truly seem to believe DeRozan will be an upgrade from Harrison Barnes, even though he won’t, and that Keegan Murray and Keon Ellis are a modern-day Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen on the less glamorous end. It’s an interesting set of convictions. Let’s wait and see how it doesn’t work out for them.

In a Nutshell: Uh, outside shooting anyone?

Here’s everyone on the San Antonio Spurs roster who attempted at least four threes per game last season and knocked them down at a league-average-or-better clip (36.6 percent):

• Harrison Barnes (4.7 attempts, 38.7 percent shooting)
• Devin Vassell (6.6 attempts, 37.7 percent shooting)

That’s it. That’s the list. One of these players, Vassell, remains on the shelf recovering from a right foot injury. And then the other one of these players is, you know, Harrison Barnes.

Go ahead and earmark Victor Wembanyama for entry into this club if you’d like. It’s possible. He has zero limits and drilled 37.5 percent of his pull-up triples as a freaking rookie. In a somewhat under-covered development, he also canned just 28.3 percent of his catch-and-shoot treys.

San Antonio’s spacing situation graduates to dire straits if Jeremy Sochan, Stephon Castle and Zach Collins are all going to log heavy minutes. A bump from Keldon Johnson is possible and likely not enough.

Scream about the addition of Chris Paul until you’re a shade of deep Orlando Magic blue. The man is 39 years old. He is more likely to have injured his shoulder reaching up for the above friendship pose with Wemby than to meaningfully ratchet up his three-point volume.

In a Nutshell: Because Jakob Poeltl said so.

Did I completely pivot from a blurb already written, even though that’s something I loathe doing, simply because Jakob Poeltl started spitting refreshingly cold, hard facts at Toronto Raptors media day?

You’re gosh darn right I did:

Candor is something we claim to desire and appreciate. But then we mock and meme it and spew drivel on our social media medium of choice like “You can’t say the quiet part out loud, Jakob .” Let’s not do that here. Poeltl is speaking the truth. Good for him.

Now, are the Raptors doing a completely coherent job of non-championship attacking? That’s a different debate.

Most rebuilding teams aren’t less than two years removed from ponying up assets to acquire and then pay Poeltl. They also aren’t littered with building blocks approaching or on their second and third contracts.

In fact, if there’s a criticism to be levied at Poeltl’s sentiments, it’s that they may be generously concrete. The Raptors aren’t unequivocally built in the image of a team “not going to attack the championship.” They are somewhere in between that and Chicago Bulls Country. The top of their roster will win them some, albeit not many, but also maybe too many, games if they’re left to their own devices.

More steps must be taken to fully clarify the direction. But that’s a digression from why we’re here. Even if Toronto outperforms Poeltl’s media-day synopsis, it’ll look more like a supercharged Atlanta Hawks imitation than title contender.

In a Nutshell: Team CEO Danny Ainge will learn from his mistakes.

For each of the previous two years, the Utah Jazz were billed as brazen tankers. They would not be too competitive by design. If they were, Ainge and general manager Justin Zanik would work their reverse-engineering magic from upstairs to ensure it didn’t last.

Well, the Jazz instead sat above .500 at some point past the midway mark anyway—in both 2022-23 and 2023-24. That perhaps means we shouldn’t rule out another encore of oops-a-daisy victories. Especially now that we know Lauri Markkanen won’t be going anywhere this season.

Screw that.

Ainge will not be out-maneuvered by the team he built again. He knows better. And so, I’ve put together a list of things more likely to happen than Utah being accidentally good this season:

• Head coach Will Hardy will receive a 20-game suspension, without pay, for conduct not detrimental enough to the team.
• Markkanen will be sent separate road-trip itineraries from his teammates that have him arriving to the Jazz’s plane 160 minutes after it takes off.
• When Markkanen does make the plane on time, the Jazz will fly to the wrong city and be forced to forfeit the game to which they were traveling.
• Drew Eubanks will start at point guard.
• Before potentially winnable games, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton will get informed they’re about to be traded and held out while the details are finalized, only for these transactions that never existed to fall apart at the last second.
• Cody Williams will miss six-to-eight weeks after burning the roof of his mouth while eating ice cream.
• Injury reports will include ailments such as “Taco Bell Indigestion,” “Bruised Fingernail,” “Mourning Pair of Lost AirPods” and “DNS (Did Not Sleep) – Borrowed Deandre Ayton’s Gravel- and Lego-stuffed Mattress,” as well as a variety of injuries to made-up body parts named after obscure anime characters.

Let’s stop here. You get the gist.

In a Nutshell: They’re attempting to do the opposite.

If you needed further proof the Washington Wizards give zero flying you-know-whats about winning basketball games, well, what the hell? You definitely didn’t need it.

They gave it to you anyway.

Flipping Deni Avdija for Malcolm Brogdon, Bub Carrington (No. 14) and a 2029 first-rounder (second-most favorable from Boston, Milwaukee or Portland) is a flagrantly future-focused move. It is also an extension of how the Wizards will operate this season.

Publicly, they will shower platitudes upon head coach Brian Keefe for the discipline and accountability he’s instilling on defense, as they rank dead last in points allowed per possession. Brogdon and Kyle Kuzma and Jonas Valančiūnas will be lauded for their veteran presences and on-court utility while having their minutes capped and names bandied about the trade-rumor mill 24/7 (after Dec. 14 in Valančiūnas’ case).

Washington will outwardly project confidence in Jordan Poole showing the level of control and skill he delivered for the stretch-run last season while inwardly hoping his turnover percentage leap-frogs his usage rate. Where you may be concerned about Alex Sarr’s summer-league performance, they see it as his preemptively being an excellent teammate for Cooper Flagg. Heck yeah they want Bilal Coulibaly to break out—so long as he doesn’t accidentally-on-purpose inflate their win total.

The 2024-25 Washington Wizards are not for everyone. Most notably, they are not for now. They are set up in service of later.