A singular demographic could tip the vote in favor of former President Donald Trump or current Vice President Kamala Harris on Election Day in Michigan, an expert said.

The 2024 election is slated to be an incredibly close one, especially in Michigan, which could easily cast its vote for either Trump or Harris on November 5. Which candidate it ultimately swings toward, however, might boil down to the vote of the state’s Muslim population, which, by many reports, is the largest in the country.

“In an election thats not close, that vote is important but would not determine the winner. But, in an election thats extremely close in Michigan, as the last two have been, it is possible that if large numbers of Muslim Americans dont vote for Kamala Harris, that could hurt her chances in Michigan,” Dr Robert Speel told TheMirror.com.

But what is a swing state? And how will Michigan’s Muslim American population factor into its identity as such a state? Amid current events around the world, the battle for Michigan is shaping up to be unlike any other in the state’s history.

What is a swing state?

Put simply, a swing state is one that could swing either Republican or Democrat, and whichever way it swings could give the party it votes for an edge in the national election, potentially tipping them over the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the country.

Michigan is considered a swing state because of the way it’s recently flip-flopped between parties, voting for Trump in 2016 and then for Biden in 2020.

Click here to follow the Mirror US on Google News to stay up to date with all the latest news, sports and entertainment stories.

This year, the other swing states include Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. All of them are integral in the November election, but some could have more sway than others.

Michigan isn’t at the top of the list for the most important swing states this year  that title likely goes to Pennsylvania  but it is an integral bellwether state, meaning that it could indicate who will win the election nationally, Speel said.

How many Electoral College votes does Michigan get?

Michigan boasts 15 Electoral College votes this year, placing it fourth out of the seven in terms of the number of votes the state gets. Still, 15 votes can be significant for either candidate as they work their way toward the coveted 270 necessary to win the national election.

By comparison, the other swing states boast the following numbers of votes:

In many ways, Michigan is more important for Harris than it is for Trump, Speel said. “Michigan is essential for both candidates. Its especially essential for Kamala Harris  if she wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, as well as that one congressional district in Nebraska, that gives her the 270 she needs to win the Electoral College. Its obviously very important for Trump, too, but its almost essential for Kamala Harris,” he explained.

It’s almost like a domino effect for Harris  if she can take one of the three, she’ll likely win the other two, but it will depend on how close the vote is.

Who won Michigan in the 2020 presidential election?

In 2020, Michigan went blue, voting for current president Joe Biden, but only by a narrow margin of 2.78%. Some rural counties outside the state’s major cities turned blue, allowing Biden to claim the state.

It boiled down to a difference of less than 200,000 votes, which were obtained after the Democrats successfully flipped a few usually Republican counties that year. Whether or not the Democrats will be able to keep those counties this year remains to be seen.

In 2016, the state swung red, however, the first time it had done so since the 1988 election that saw former President George H. W. Bush elected. Throughout its recent history, the state has gone through periods of a couple of decades at a time where it votes one way before flipping, typically sticking with a party for about 20 or so years before switching it up.

Is Michigan a red or blue state?

Historically, Michigan is a very blue state. In fact, the state has voted largely Democratically since the 1930s, with a few exceptions, including a period of red voting in the 1970s and 1980s.

The exceptions to the recent blue voting streak in the state include when it voted for Wendell Willkie over Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1940, when it voted for Thomas E. Dewey over Harry S. Truman in 1948, when it voted for Dwight D. Eisenhower twice in 1952 and 1956 and when it voted for Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush in consecutive elections from 1972 until 1988.

After that, the state voted exclusively Democratically until Trump ran for office in 2016, taking the state by an incredibly narrow margin of 0.22 points. The margin of Biden’s victory in 2020 was much higher than Trump’s in 2016.

For Trump, Speel said, winning Michigan is an indicator that he will likely win the entire election because of its blue history. Michigan is perhaps the most blue-leaning of all the swing states this year, with Wisconsin being a close second.

“Michigan is a state that, in a normal presidential election, Democrats should be winning,” Speel explained. “So, if Donald Trump is winning there, thats probably a sign hes winning nationwide. If Kamala Harris wins there, that may be a sign shes also winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, but Michigan is usually the most Democratic of those three, and shes got other states shell need to win.”

“Its pretty much essential for Kamala Harris to win Michigan, and for Donald Trump, its just important because if he does win Michigan, its likely hes winning nationwide,” he summed up.

When is election day in Michigan?

Michigan, like many other states, offers early voting, with the state’s law requiring at least nine days of early voting available to all voters starting at least two Saturdays before Election Day  which is November 5  and ending on the Sunday before the election, making the mandated dates for early voting this year October 26 through November 3.

Many counties and areas will begin early voting before October 26, however, including Canton Township, Detroit and East Lansing. Detroit will start on October 19, and October 21 marks the beginning of early voting for both East Lansing and Canton Township.

Early voting sites are required to be open for at least eight hours per day, according to Michigan law, and voters already in line by the time the polling place closes are still allowed to vote.

Voter registration deadlines in the state are largely all on October 21. For mail-in and absentee ballots, requests must be received by Nov. 1 in most places, and then ballots have to be returned by Election Day, Nov. 5.

Issues setting Michigan apart

The issues in Michigan are largely the same as in other swing states  the economy, jobs, inflation, foreign affairs, abortion and healthcare, and several others. But for Michigan specifically, the economy and jobs are likely to be some of the most important, given that the state has such a large population of young, white, working-class men, as do Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Harris has not been polling well with that demographic, Speel said, whereas Trump has appeared on lots of social media pages and podcasts that are tailored to that population. Harris did appear on Call Her Daddy recently, but that’s primarily targeted toward young women.

“That’s one issue for Kamala Harris,” Speel said. “She needs to win enough votes among young, white men and combine that with support from other groups in order to win Michigan.”

He said Harris could focus on economic issues, too, and that would help her, since those are important to that demographic. “Shes not going to downplay her support for abortion rights. Shes not going to downplay her support for LGBTQ+ rights. But those tend to be issues, for better or for worse, do not attract a lot of votes among young men,” he explained.

What are Kamala Harris political views? Vice presidents policies from gun control to immigration

Who is Usha Vance, wife of Republican VP pick JD Vance? Behind ex-Democrat daughter of immigrants

“She has to show that shes also as interested in issues that young men seem to care about. If its working-class men, were talking about jobs,” he added. “She is somewhat acting tough on foreign policy, and that tends to be an issue that tends to have more appeal to men than women. When candidates act tough on foreign policy, thats something that Donald Trump thinks helps him, but when we found out that he sent COVID-19 tests to the president of Russia, thats not really acting tough on foreign policy.”

Securing the Muslim vote

Recent polls have indicated, according to Speel, that Muslim Americans are turning toward Harris instead of Trump due to her stance on the situation in Gaza and the rest of the Middle East, but many aren’t exactly racing to the polls to enthusiastically cast their votes for her.

She’s largely better on the issue than Trump in the eyes of many Muslim voters, Speel, who is the program chair and an associate professor of political science as well as the director of The Public Policy Initiative at Penn State Behrend, said, in that she’s called out Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli government for their bombardment of Gaza, but she and President Joe Biden haven’t denounced Israel, either, which Speel said many Muslim voters would have liked both him and Harris to have done.

“Kamala Harris has been trying to say things that might be acceptable to both sides of the issue and probably are acceptable to neither side by saying that we need a ceasefire in the Middle East as soon as possible but that she will continue to stand by Israel,” Speel said. “Thats something that doesnt seem to be enough for people who support the Palestinian cause in the Middle East.”

“Theyre concerned that genocide is occurring, and to say you support a ceasefire but stand by Israel I dont think is enough to win over a lot of those voters,” he added.

On October 7, 2023, Hamas militants invaded Israel, storming an outdoor music festival and raging through several kibbutzim near the border with Gaza, killing around 1,200 Israelis. In retaliation, Israel has constantly bombarded Gaza, vowing to eradicate Hamas by any means necessary, and recently escalated that mission, launching an invasion into Lebanon to target Hezbollah targets.

In those pursuits, Israel and its Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have killed over 42,000 Palestinians  many of them women and children  in Gaza alone, according to the most recent Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry statistics. In Lebanon, as of five days ago, there have been over 2,100 people killed in the onslaught.

“President Biden has made clear that he doesnt really like Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, and doesnt really support their policies, and Kamala Harris has followed in that path and maybe even been more supportive of the Palestinian cause than Biden has been,” he explained. “But, its still saying at the same time that they support Israel, which I think is something a lot of Muslim Americans may not like to hear.”

He emphasized, however, that Biden and Harris have been two of the most outspoken politicians from major parties in recent decades, expressing support for Palestinian livelihood. “Both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, while they continue to stand by Israel, they have been the most sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, possibly of any president or major party presidential candidate in several decades,” he said. “For several decades, all presidents and presidential candidates have stood by Israeli government policies almost no matter what they do.”

That’s significantly more support for Palestine expressed by both Democrats (as well as Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz) than has been expressed by Trump or his running mate, junior Ohio Senator JD Vance.

“I dont see Trump doing anything in particular that would appeal to Muslim American voters with his stance in the Middle East,” Speel explained. “He might be appealing to some Muslim Americans with his support for more conservative views of the family and maybe some of his economic policies. But, as far as the Middle East goes, Trump has been pro-Israel all the way. Im not sure how he could change that except to suddenly announce that hes not pro-Israel all the way and that he opposes what Israel is doing. I dont see Trump doing that in the next month.”

As of September 2023, the Detroit Free Press reported that there are approximately 310,000 individuals of Middle Eastern or North African descent living in the state, making up 3.1% of its population. Many live in the Detroit area.

Speel admitted that, by themselves, Muslims won’t be enough to win over the state. But, with the election expected to be so close, even such a tiny number of voters compared to the entire state could tip the scales in the favor of one candidate or the other.

If anything, undecided Muslim voters might vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who has taken a vocal stance against Israel and denounced the bombardment of Gaza. And if that happens, Harris could lose key votes in the state  and therefore her edge over Trump.