The only season that MLB fans care about in October is the postseason. But lest anyone forget, October is also spooky season.

So, let’s take a stroll through a haunted house of scary contracts.

There’s no shortage of nightmare pacts out there right now, but we’re going to look forward a couple years by way of this question: Which contract will have each team quaking with dread in 2026?

Naturally, contracts that are bad now will likely still be bad in 2026. But this also required some projection and imagination. Some deals may not look bad now, but they belong to players who are in danger of being swallowed whole by age and other such beasts.

The ideal nightmare is as follows: A given player has not only aged out of stardom come 2026, but is also still owed a ton of money both for that season and for subsequent years.

After first stopping to acknowledge a few teams that provided no good options for this exercise, we’ll go one team at a time in alphabetical order by city.

Note: All 2026 WAR projections are courtesy of ZiPS.

Teams without Anyone Signed Through 2026

Athletics

The soon-to-be-former Oakland A’s don’t owe anyone any guaranteed money in 2026, and even their arbitration-eligible group for that year only consists of four players.

For what it’s worth, the A’s do want to raise payroll this winter. But even if that is meant to imply a free-agent spending spree, well, good luck selling players on Sacramento.

Baltimore Orioles

This is almost certainly going to change this winter, be it through a long-term free-agent deal or overdue extensions with one or more core stars.

But for now, the only money on Baltimore’s books in 2026 is Eloy Jiménez’s $18.5 million contract option. This is the same Eloy Jiménez they recently demoted, so that option is as good as declined.

Teams without Scary Contracts for 2026

Cincinnati Reds

Only Jeimer Candelario and Hunter Greene are guaranteed any money by the Reds in 2026. The former will be in the last season of a three-year, $45 million deal, while the latter is a budding ace who’s earning just $8.3 million per year.

Kansas City Royals

Maybe there’s a case to be made that Bobby Witt Jr.’s 11-year, $288.8 million contract is a looming disaster for the Royals, but you’re not going to hear it uttered here.

Miami Marlins

The 2026 season will mark the last guaranteed year of Sandy Alcantara’s five-year, $56 million contract. Assuming he’s still with Miami, even a repeat of his 2023 season (4.14 ERA, 184.2 IP) would be a solid return for his $17.3 million salary.

Tampa Bay Rays

Wander Franco has been ordered to stand trial in the Dominican Republic on charges related to sexual abuse of a minor. He is not being paid while he is on MLB’s restricted list, and the Rays will presumably move to void his 11-year, $182 million deal if he is convicted.

Washington Nationals

Keibert Ruiz isn’t much of a hitter, but he’s still a semi-dependable everyday catcher. His average salary of $6.3 million is far from an offensive sum, especially considering the considerable resources at Washington’s disposal.

Age in 2026: 33

Contract Status in 2026: Year 3 of 4-year, $80 million deal (with 2028 mutual option)

2026 WAR Projection: 1.8

Eduardo Rodriguez is one of three players Arizona has signed through 2026, with the others being Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

If you just thought “one of those things is not like the others,” you’re not wrong.

Let’s be fair and note that A) E-Rod has had a good career and B) that his 2023 season proves he is capable of coming back from the brink of ruin. This is what he’ll be trying to do in 2025 after making only 10 starts and putting up a 5.04 ERA in 2024.

But it seems unlikely. Rodriguez was last a dependable full-time starter back in 2021, and his Baseball Savant page paints a clear picture of a soft-tosser with iffy command and who neither misses bats nor limits hard contact.

If there’s any comfort to be had in the meantime, it’s related to how it isn’t Rodriguez’s contract that is driving Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick absolutely batty.

Age in 2026: 31

Contract Status in 2026: Year 4 of 6-year, $73 million deal (with 2029 team option)

2026 WAR Projection: 3.2

Atlanta has nine players whose salaries will be guaranteed in 2026. It is a ridiculous (in a good way) amount, and not many of those deals trigger threat assessment alarms.

Save for maybe Matt Olson, who’s past 30 and fresh off a somewhat alarming fall from slugging glory from 2023 to 2024. And for Spencer Strider, who’s now had two major elbow operations.

Here’s the thing about Sean Murphy, though: His stardom is already on thin ice.

Though he was an All-Star just last season, he’s also been limited by injuries to 180 games over the last two seasons. And he’s had a chilly bat for a while now, altogether hitting just .181/.294/.313 in 113 games since the 2023 All-Star break.

Such things wouldn’t bode well for anyone, much less a guy who’s now into his 30s after celebrating the big 3-0 on October 4.

Age in 2026: 33

Contract Status in 2026: Year 5 of 6-year, $140 million deal (with 2028 team option)

2026 WAR Projection: 1.6

This is assuming that Trevor Story doesn’t opt out of his contract after the 2025 season, which is technically possible.

But then again, so is landing on Mars and terraforming it for the benefit of future human utopias.

Story’s first three seasons with the Red Sox really have been that bad, mostly because of a barrage of injuries that has limited him to 163 games. It otherwise hasn’t helped that he’s been quite bad offensively, rating as 11 percent worse than the average hitter.

Story’s defense has been a positive to the tune of 20 Outs Above Average at shortstop and second base. But unless he hits, Boston may find itself increasingly tempted to move him out of the way of Marcelo Mayer and/or Kristian Campbell.

Either way, it seems possible that Story won’t even be on the Red Sox anymore come 2026.

Age in 2026: 32

Contract Status in 2026: Year 4 of 7-year, $177 million deal

2026 WAR Projection: 3.2

Dansby Swanson is neither the only player nor the worst player the Cubs have signed through 2026.

Yet he is the only one the Cubs control for ’26 and beyond, so it’s not ideal that his star power just took a step toward being kaput.

The Cubs signed Swanson off a three-year run in which he had a .775 OPS and a 162-game average of 26 home runs. He lived up to that record in 2023, but not this year as he slipped to a .701 OPS and 16 homers.

Specific red flags include an inflating ground-ball rate and less carry on his fly balls. As power is his defining offensive tool, these are bad signs.

Per his 60 Outs Above Average, Swanson has been MLB’s best defender over the last three years. But even if he still has that going for him in 2026, it will only count for so much if his bat is still in decline.

Age in 2026: 31

Contract Status in 2026: Year 4 of 5-year, $75 million deal

2026 WAR Projection: 1.0

Will Andrew Benintendi still be on the White Sox in 2026? One supposes it depends.

Namely, on how much money they agree to eat in any trade that offloads him on another team.

It’s getting increasingly rare for big MLB deals to feel like bad ideas from the start, but that was instantly the case with Benintendi and his pact with the White Sox. It was the richest deal in club history, and it was for a singles hitter.

It was only ever going to work if Benintendi continued to hit over .300, as he had in 2022. He’s instead hit .246 in two seasons on the South Side, and even quadrupling his home runs from 2023 to 2024 didn’t keep him from a second straight OPS in the .680 range.

As the former Gold Glover is also suddenly one of the worst defenders in baseball, the White Sox have really pantsed themselves with this one.

Age in 2026: 27

Contract Status in 2026: Year 4 of 7-year, $106.5 million deal (with 2030 team option)

2026 WAR Projection: 4.4

The Guardians will still be paying Myles Straw in 2026, but only $7.4 million and then they’ll be off the hook.

Their miscalculation with Andrés Giménez, on the other hand, is going to cost them quite a bit more for quite a bit longer.

The Guardians bought high on Giménez, extending him in 2023 when he was coming off a sensational 7.4-rWAR season. He had hit .297 with 20 homers in 2022, all while winning his first Gold Glove.

The defense is still there. But the offense? Not so much. The last two seasons have seen Giménez hit just .252 with 24 homers as he’s pulled double-duty as a rejector of walks and a purveyor of weak contact.

Perhaps the Guardians expected some kind of offensive regression to happen eventually, but this is an extreme one amid what should be Giménez’s prime. It’s a “yikes,” to be sure.

Age in 2026: 34

Contract Status in 2026: Year 5 of 7-year, $182 million deal

2026 WAR Projection: Minus-0.2

So, where does Kris Bryant’s deal rank among the worst free-agent signings of all time?

This is not a conversation the Rockies ever wanted anyone to be having, much less just three years into Bryant’s time in Denver. And yet, to say they’ve gotten nothing from him would be putting it kindly.

They’ve gotten less than nothing, at least as far as Bryant’s minus-1.3 rWAR as a Rockie is concerned. And that is only counting the games he’s played. There aren’t many of those, as he’s missed almost 70 percent of the Rockies’ contests with injuries.

Bryant otherwise hasn’t hit, and especially as he’s batted just .229/.316/.346 across the last two seasons. It turns out that when a guy’s power completely evaporates, even Coors Field can’t help.

Even sans context, this is a disastrous outcome. And in this case, we’re talking about a deal that never looked like a good idea for the Rockies.

Age in 2026: 33

Contract Status in 2026: Year 5 of 6-year, $140 million deal

2026 WAR Projection: 0.4

Speaking of signings that were questionable from the get-go, the Tigers’ deal with Javier Báez was just as iffy as the Rockies’ pact with Bryant.

Even setting aside whether the timing was right to take such a risk, whether Báez was the right guy for it was always a fair question. He was a couple of seasons removed from a brief run as a superstar, and neither his long swing nor his wild approach figured to age well.

Still, perhaps nobody saw those things aging this poorly this quickly.

We now know for a fact that Báez’s swing is the longest in baseball, and it’s become incapable of catching up to fastballs. Between that and his still-abysmal zone discipline, it makes sense that he’s hit only .221/.263/.347 in three years as a Tiger.

Injuries also haven’t helped, of course. But at his age, the likelihood of the hurts subsiding is basically nil.

Age in 2026: 32

Contract Status in 2026: Year 3 of 5-year, $95 million deal

2026 WAR Projection: 0.6

This year was a lot of things from Josh Hader, but it was far from the worst of his career.

That designation still belongs to 2022, in which he got traded and finished with a 5.22 ERA. Yet this year both began and ended in unsettling fashion, culminating in him giving up the hit that sealed the Astros’ doom in the Wild Card Series.

As for how much the Astros should be worried, the answer is between “a little bit” and “very.”

Though Hader was mostly effective in 2024, he still isn’t striking guys out like he did between 2018 and 2022. His fastball velocity and whiff rate likewise aren’t what they used to be.

Such maladies eventually come for all hard-throwing relievers, and it also feels appropriate to play a hunch with Hader’s physical wellbeing. His run of having never gone on the IL with an actual injury is frankly unsustainable.

Age in 2026: 34

Contract Status in 2026: Year 8 of 12-year, $426.5 million deal

2026 WAR Projection: 2.2

Anthony Rendon will, for the record, still be under contract with the Angels in 2026. But only through the end of that season, and then no longer.

By contrast, the nightmare the Angels are going through with Mike Trout will still have another five years to go.

You may have gotten a whiff of schadenfreude here and there while reading this list, but no such intent applies here. Trout has only ever been easy to root for, so watching him go from a three-time MVP to basically irrelevant doesn’t just suck. With apologies to Beavis and Butt-Head, it sucks more than anything has ever sucked before.

Because of injuries, Trout has played in only 41 percent of the Angels’ games since 2021. There have been some fluky ones in the mix, but he’s mostly been laid low by precisely the aches and pains you’d expect an ultra-athletic yet aging star to encounter eventually.

Barring some kind of super serum, it’s hard to imagine things getting any better for Trout. And it cannot be stressed enough what a bummer that is.

Age in 2026: 32

Contract Status in 2026: Year 3 of a 5-year, $136.5 million deal

2026 WAR Projection: 2.4

This year was not a convincing proof of concept for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman will only be two years older in 2026.

So why pick on Tyler Glasnow here? A couple of reasons.

For one, the body of evidence that he just can’t stay healthy is only growing. He came into 2024 having never thrown more than 120 innings in a season. And while he did get to 134 this year, back tightness and an elbow sprain kept him from going further.

For two, Glasnow’s ace-caliber stuff only occasionally produces ace-caliber results. Even in his two healthiest seasons (i.e., 2023 and 2024), he’s only been 15 percent better than the average pitcher.

Basically, Glasnow is getting paid like a No. 1 despite having red flags that other No. 1s typically don’t have. The likelihood of those going away between now and 2026 isn’t particularly high.

Age in 2026: 34

Contract Status in 2026: Year 7 of 9-year, $215 million deal (with 2029 mutual option)

2026 WAR Projection: 0.9

In the wake of a four-year stretch in which he looked nothing like his MVP-contender self of 2018 and 2019, all finally seemed to be right with Christian Yelich earlier in 2024.

Remember how good he was through July 23? If not, here’s a reminder: He was batting .315/.406/.504 and leading the Brewers in fWAR.

But then his back problems came, well, back.

Whereas Yelich’s back was merely a nuisance between 2020 and 2023, this time it got so bad that he had to have season-ending surgery. By the time he returns in 2025, he’ll be 33 years old and six years removed from his last sustained run as a superstar.

Whatever hope the Brewers had of seeing that guy again should therefore be pretty well shattered by now. It’s a good thing, then, that they have that other guy to carry them.

Age in 2026: 31

Contract Status in 2026: Year 4 of 6-year, $200 million deal (with 2029-2032 team options)

2026 WAR Projection: 2.8

It isn’t ideal that the Twins’ highest-paid position players are 30-somethings who both come with ample injury risk.

Yet relative to Byron Buxton, two things set Carlos Correa apart: He’s paid roughly twice as much and he’s stuck in a concerning cycle with his feet.

Correa has dealt with plantar fasciitis in each of the last two seasons. When he tried to play through it in 2023, he hit only .230. He didn’t make that mistake this year, but it’s a small comfort given that the injury cost him two whole months.

Correa and the Twins did find an effective treatment toward the end of 2024, but even that only does so much to assuage concerns about his future. This is a guy with a ton of mileage on his feet, and who just turned 30 on September 22.

And just in case anyone’s forgotten about it, Correa’s ankle is a time bomb that could potentially detonate at any moment.

Age in 2026: 32

Contract Status in 2026: Year 4 of 5-year, $102 million deal

2026 WAR Projection: 1.1

Contrary to Trevor Story in Boston, there actually is a non-zero chance of Edwin Díaz opting out of his contract.

He’ll have that option after 2025 and 2026, and he’d be a fool not to take either if one or both of those years lives up to the track record that made him MLB’s first nine-figure reliever in the first place.

But would the Díaz of today be wise to opt out?

One thinks not. His return from knee surgery hasn’t been smooth sailing, after all. He doesn’t throw as hard as he did in 2022, and his whiff rate ended up below his career average. He got demoted back in June, and even more recent outings haven’t been pain-free.

It’s possible that Díaz will get stronger as he gets further removed from surgery. But with his 31st birthday coming on March 22, 2025, it’s not a safe bet.

Age in 2026: 36

Contract Status in 2026: Year 12 of 13-year, $325 million deal ($6 million paid by Marlins, with 2028 team option)

2026 WAR Projection: Minus-0.5

It wouldn’t be unfair to put Carlos Rodón in the crosshairs here.

The lefty was merely an average-ish pitcher even in an ostensible rebound season in 2024. And his six-year, $162 million deal still has four full seasons left.

Still, better a guy who could age poorly than a guy who already has aged poorly, which is what Giancarlo Stanton is at this stage.

Though his playoff heroics go a fair way in redeeming him, Stanton still only has 4.6 rWAR to show for his last six seasons with the Yankees. That includes just 0.6 rWAR for the last three, which hints at how little he’s had to offer despite his 82 home runs in this span.

This is not going to change, nor are the lower-half injuries that have contributed to Stanton’s demise likely to stop. As such, really the only question is whether he’ll still even be taking up a roster spot for the Yankees in 2026.

Age in 2026: 33

Contract Status in 2026: Year 4 of 11-year, $300 million deal

2026 WAR Projection: 3.1

Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola are going to decline eventually, but it doesn’t feel imminent. Not when compared to Trea Turner, anyway.

His tenure in Philadelphia is already off to a rockier-than-expected start. He didn’t get going until August of last year, and this season saw him miss time with a hamstring injury.

Turner was indeed still an elite runner this year, but only in relation to his peers. By his standards, his average sprint of 29.6 feet per second marked a new low.

Turner still has a pretty good bat if you take away his speed, but he’s suddenly struggling to hit fastballs and he seems to be past his peak power. Per Outs Above Average, the same is true of his defense at shortstop.

This season ended up being a solid one for Turner despite these things, but it was far from his best. And if his skills continue to degrade, his best will become more of a distant memory.

Age in 2026: 29

Contract Status in 2026: Year 5 of 8-year, $70 million deal

2026 WAR Projection: 1.7

The total worth of Ke’Bryan Hayes’ contract may only be the same as Shohei Ohtani’s average annual value, but it matters that it is the biggest deal in the history of the Pirates.

And so far, it’s looking like a misfire.

The Bucs’ bet on Hayes was an upside play, and it initially seemed well-founded. He had only posted a .689 OPS in his first year as a full-time regular in 2021, yet he did so with above-average marks for whiff rate and exit velocity.

The last three seasons have nonetheless raised the question of whether Hayes’ apparent offensive upside actually exists. He still has solid underlying metrics, but all he has to show for them is a .673 OPS.

Hayes at least still has his electrifying, Gold Glove-winning defense going for him. But between his offense and his persistent back problems, him making maximum good on his contract is increasingly unlikely.

Age in 2026: 33

Contract Status in 2026: Year 4 of 11-year, $280 million deal

2026 WAR Projection: 2.4

Manny Machado has looked mortal in the two years since the Padres signed him to an 11-year, $350 million deal, but at least he’s trending better than Xander Bogaerts.

He had a terrific first month with the Padres in 2023, batting .308 with six home runs. He’s since been wildly hit or miss to the tune of a .273/.324/.403 slash line.

A bothersome wrist and a fractured shoulder haven’t helped Bogaerts’ cause. But to paraphrase a familiar refrain, past injuries don’t portend a healthy future when it comes to older players.

Even if Bogaerts’ health improves, how his bat will age will still be a question mark. What power he showed in Boston before coming to San Diego was largely related to Fenway Park. Alas, Petco Park isn’t as friendly to right-handed hitters.

One bright side in the meantime is that Bogaerts is beating expectations in the field. But if he doesn’t hit, then the Padres won’t get what they’re paying for.

Age in 2026: 29

Contract Status in 2026: Year 3 of 4-year, $44 million deal

2026 WAR Projection: 0.5

There’s certainly a chance of Matt Chapman’s freshly signed six-year, $151 million deal going bad, but it’s all in the abstract. Dude literally just had the third 7-rWAR season of his career.

Since Jung Hoo Lee also showed potential before dislocating his shoulder, let it be known that Jordan Hicks is here as a sort of “no better options” selection.

Signing him as a starter looked like a stroke of genius initially, as he still had a sub-3.00 ERA as late as June 17. But then he coughed up an 8.18 ERA over his next five starts, followed by a forgettable move back to the bullpen.

Hicks can throw hard, but his sinker nonetheless got hit at a .341 clip this season. He also continued to have control issues, walking 3.9 batters per nine innings.

It’s time to recognize that Hicks is merely OK as a reliever (3.71 ERA) and worse as a starter (4.32 ERA), and that he therefore figures to be the only winner of his $44 million contract.

Age in 2026: 33

Contract Status in 2026: Year 4 of 5-year, $108 million deal (with 2028 vesting option)

2026 WAR Projection: 2.9

Luis Castillo had a 3.62 ERA as a Cincinnati Red. He has a 3.42 ERA as a Mariner, which is…[checks notes]…a low number.

He’s here, though, because things that tend to happen when pitchers get into their 30s are starting to happen to him.

Castillo is coming off a season in which his average fastball dipped to a career-low 95.6 mph, with a corresponding drop in its whiff rate. Both marks were still good, but trendlines like those don’t tend to go back up.

Further, hitting him hard isn’t so difficult anymore. At its peak, his average exit velocity was in the 88th percentile. It was in the 23rd percentile in 2023, and the 24th this year.

It’s not solely because of the correction for the pitcher-friendly environs of T-Mobile Park that Castillo was merely a league-average pitcher in 2024. That is precisely what he’s becoming.

Age in 2026: 35

Contract Status in 2026: Year 8 of 9-year, $275 million deal ($5 million paid by Rockies)

2026 WAR Projection: 1.5

Nothing is going to change the narrative of the Nolan Arenado trade. It’s a huge W for the Cardinals and a huge L for the Rockies.

But if 2023 didn’t make it clear enough that Arenado’s prime is over, 2024 sure did.

He never was much of a hard-contact aficionado even when he was racking up Silver Sluggers and MVP votes, but he is especially no such thing now. He was in the same exit velocity bracket as Luis Arraez, and only one of them intentionally chases singles.

Previously, only the eye test could tell you if a guy had a long swing. But like with Javier Báez, we now know that Arenado’s swing is one of the longest in baseball. And with his production against fastballs having tanked, one wonders if it’s slowing down.

Arenado’s defense is, mercifully, still excellent. But with his bat’s best days behind him, his glove alone won’t sustain him as a star.

Age in 2026: 38

Contract Status in 2026: Year 4 of 5-year, $185 million deal (with 2028 mutual option)

2026 WAR Projection: 1.2

If anyone’s thinking Jacob deGrom must be in this spot because of his injury history, well, you’re not wrong.

He’s only a month removed from returning from his second Tommy John surgery, and he wasn’t exactly a picture of health beforehand. He missed a bunch of time with a forearm strain in 2021, and again with a shoulder issue in 2022.

Ultimately, here’s the deal:

• 2014-2019: Averaged 28 GS, 184 IP
• 2021-2024: Averaged 9 GS, 49 IP

It was nice to see that deGrom still mostly looked like his former self in the three starts he made for the Rangers at the end of 2024, striking out 14 and walking only one in 10.2 innings. He did, however, do so with his lowest average fastball velocity since 2019.

All this plus deGrom’s age make it fair to assume that if the Injury Bug doesn’t get him again, the Aging Curve will.

Age in 2026: 32

Contract Status in 2026: Year 5 of 7-year, $131 million deal

2026 WAR Projection: 1.9

You have to give José Berríos this much credit: If nothing else, he posts.

He’s one of only three pitchers to log over 1,200 innings since 2018, with the others being Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Given the state of starting pitching today, this sort of currency is almost certainly undervalued.

All the same, the general effectiveness of Berríos’ innings is waning.

This is most evident in how 2024 resulted in a new low for strikeouts per nine innings and a new high with 31 home runs allowed. And when you see a pitcher with both a 14th-percentile whiff rate and a hard-hit rate in the 24th percentile, that just isn’t good.

The last five months of Berríos’ 2024 season, in which he had a 4.24 ERA, feel like an early hint of things to come. He’ll continue to eat innings, but the question will increasingly be at what cost.