With four teams left standing heading into the ALCS and NLCS, the quest for Major League Baseball’s 2024 World Series has turned into a game of “One of these things is not like the other.”

In the New York Mets, New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, you’ve got three teams from MLB’s two biggest markets, who were willing to spend whatever it took to at least make it this far. Per Spotrac, they will each be making a luxury tax penalty payment of at least $60 million, on top of payrolls already eclipsing $300 million with room to spare.

And then you’ve got the Cleveland Guardians, looking to become the first team since the 2003 Florida Marlins to win a World Series with an Opening Day payroll that ranked 18th or worse for that season. (Cleveland’s was 23rd.)

For all the time we spent marveling at Kansas City’s turnaround from a 106-loss mess one year ago, how about Cleveland spending a whole $8.25M in free agency last winter, losing ace Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery one week into the season…and going from 76-86 to the brink of a World Series?

If you’re the type to root for all of the No. 16 seeds in the first round of the NCAA tournament, buddy, here’s your underdog. What a story it would be if they manage to topple the Yankees and the Dodgers/Mets to win it all.

How likely is that to happen, though?

Ahead, we’ll break down each of the four teams and each of the two matchups en route to making our predictions on who makes it to the World Series (and who wins the LCS MVPs).

Regular Season: 89-73

Postseason Path: 2-1 over No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers, 3-1 over No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies

How They Got Here

The Mets have been playing postseason baseball since long before October began, needing truly every win they got during their 67-40 finish to sneak into the playoffs on a tiebreaker.

By the time they clinched their spot in the field in Game 1 of a standalone doubleheader against Atlanta that featured 10 runs in the eighth inning alone and a combined total of three blown saves, it practically felt like business as usual for this club.

Same goes for the dramatic conclusion to the wild card round, once again playing in MLB’s only game of the day and once again needing late heroics to seal the deal, this time coming on a Pete Alonso three-run home run off Devin Williams.

Then, against the Phillies, of course they won Game 1 via late drama, putting up five runs in the eighth inning after Zack Wheeler completely shut them down through the first seven. And of course they won Game 4 because of a Francisco Lindor grand slam off one of the best closers in the business.

At this point, it’s just what they do.

Likely Starting Rotation: Kodai Senga, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea

The Senga part is at least a little concerning. He pitched two innings in Game 1 of the NLDS after making just one appearance all season in late July, and they’ll probably see if he can give them a little more than that in Game 1 of the NLCS.

The other three pieces have been solid, though, combining for four quality starts in the first two rounds. Kind of funny that the trio of veterans has a combined 2024 salary ($41.75M) nowhere close to what the Mets paid Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander ($55.8M) to pitch elsewhere this season, but they’ve been formidable all season long.

MVP Candidate: Francisco Lindor

Alonso has three home runs this postseason. Mark Vientos has gone 12-for-28 at the dish with two dingers of his own. But it does feel like if they’re going to continue this run to the World Series, Lindor is very likely to be the leading force.

Before the grand slam, he had been just 6-for-25 in the postseason, but with his usual supply of great defense at short to help repeatedly hold opponents in check.

Achilles’ Heel: Early Offense

The whole Cardiac Mets thing has been an inescapable phenomenon, but, like, they know they’re allowed to score in the first few innings, right?

Over the last nine games dating back to the doubleheader, they’ve scored a combined total of 10 runs in the first four innings, compared to 21 runs just between the eighth and ninth innings.

Thus far, no one has really made them pay for it, as they’ve allowed a combined total of 11 runs in the first five innings across those nine games. But repeatedly not scoring until the second half of games and just planning on overcoming any deficit is a dangerous way to live.

Regular Season: 92-69

Postseason Path: 3-2 over No. 6 Detroit Tigers

How They Got Here

Mostly on the strength of one of the greatest bullpens ever assembled.

That’s not hyperbole, either. FanGraphs rates what Cleveland collectively did this season as the 17th-most valuable season ever by an arsenal of relievers. And with an overall ERA of 2.57, that was the fourth-best mark by a bullpen in the past three decades, trailing only the 2003 Dodgers (2.46), 2013 Braves (2.46) and 2013 Royals (2.55).

Emmanuel Clase was the brightest star with his 0.61 ERA and 0.66 WHIP. But Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin were each stupendous for a Guardians team that had little choice but to lean heavily upon its relievers.

And save for Clase’s rare moment of mortality against Kerry Carpenter in the ninth inning of Game 2, that ‘pen delivered in a big way against the Tigers, with Smith and Herrin pitching in all five games; Gaddis and Clase in four each.

How about Lane Thomas, though?

He delivered the three-run blast in the first inning of Game 1 to just about instantly put that one out of reach, and then he swatted that monumental grand slam off Tarik Skubal in the fifth inning of Game 5.

After a rough first month with the Guardians, what a trade deadline acquisition the Lane Train turned out to be.

Likely Starting Rotation: Tanner Bibee, Matthew Boyd, Alex Cobb, Gavin Williams

During Cleveland’s 53-30 start to the season, Boyd, Cobb and Williams combined to pitch a grand total of zero innings.

Williams made his debut on July 3 after spending the first three months on the IL with elbow inflammation. They signed Boyd as a free agent in late June and didn’t have him available until mid-August as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. And they traded for Cobb at the deadline, who made just three appearances in the entire season prior to taking the mound in Game 3 of the ALDS.

Corey Kluber, Shane Bieber, C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee ain’t walking through that door, though. They need Bibee to be an ace and they need that trio that wasn’t even on the active roster until the second half of the season to hold down the fort.

MVP Candidate: José Ramírez

For all the talk of Aaron Judge’s career shortcomings in the postseason, the fact that Ramírez had a .628 OPS with just two home runs and no stolen bases through the first 35 games of his October career sure had flown below the national radar.

But he provided a big home run in Game 4 of the ALDS, as well as a key single in the seventh inning of Game 5.

Perhaps he’s finally ready to start producing like the regular-season star who has racked up 236 home runs, 201 stolen bases and 294 doubles since the beginning of 2017—the only player in all of baseball with at least 160 of each during that time.

Achilles’ Heel: The Rotation

To be clear, this offense hasn’t been anything special in a while, either, averaging a meager 3.8 runs from the beginning of July through the end of the regular season. (By comparison, the Mets averaged 4.6, the Yankees 5.0 and the Dodgers 5.35 during that three-month stretch.) The Guardians were also shut out in both of their losses to the Tigers in the past week.

But taking Boyd, Cobb and Williams up against that Yankees offense is the much bigger concern.

As great as this bullpen has been, leads to protect might be hard to come by if those starters don’t come through in a big way.

Regular Season: 98-64

Postseason Path: 3-2 over No. 4 San Diego Padres

How They Got Here

Well, it all started last winter, when they spent over a billion bucks on Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto—not to mention Teoscar Hernández and Kiké Hernández, both of whom homered in that colossal Game 5 against the Padres.

After back-to-back years of NLDS early exits, the Dodgers went all-in on making sure that didn’t happen again. And while the injury bug did everything in its power to derail them, all that spending still got them the best record in baseball and over the first hurdle for a change.

Ohtani only had four hits in the NLDS, but he got them going early in both Games 1 and 4 with big second-inning RBIs. And Yamamoto going five shutout innings and out-dueling Yu Darvish in Game 5 was so huge.

Mookie Betts finally got off the schneid, too. After going a combined 2-for-25 with one RBI between the 2022 and 2023 NLDS, he had a home run robbed in Game 2 before delivering dingers in each of Games 3 and 4.

Always nice to have at least two of your former MVPs hit some homers.

Likely Starting Rotation: Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, Landon Knack/Bullpen Game

Yamamoto was clutch on Friday, but now they won’t have him until Game 3 of the NLCS (and Game 7, if necessary). It will surely be Flaherty going in Game 1 and presumably Buehler in Game 2.

Goodness only knows for Game 4, though. The bullpen game with Ryan Brasier as the opener worked wonders in Game 4 of the NLDS, but can they go that route again, this time in the middle game of back-to-back-to-back days in action?

They’ll likely roll with Knack, but with a very short leash for the rookie, perhaps maxing him out at four innings before turning it over to the ‘pen.

MVP Candidate: Shohei Ohtani

Again, Ohtani only had four hits in the NLDS, but at least he made them count, going 3-for-4 with runners in scoring position, including a three-run home run in Game 1 where he got as fired up as he’s ever been.

And prior to that modest (by his standards) start to his postseason career, Ohtani entered October having hit .393/.458/.766 with 10 home runs and 16 stolen bases in the month of September.

Best of luck to the Mets holding him in check for four to seven games.

Achilles’ Heel: Starting Rotation Health

Walker Buehler had a negative-1.3 bWAR this season, gave up six earned runs in Game 3 of the NLDS…and is very likely slated to starts Games 2 and 6 of the NLCS because where the heck else are the Dodgers going to turn?

They were hoping to get Clayton Kershaw back from his toe injury at some point in the postseason, but they’ve had to shut him down, putting him on a crowded shelf alongside Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and River Ryan.

Even Yamamoto is far from full strength, last reaching 80 pitches in an appearance on June 7.

Excluding when the Padres got homer happy in the final two innings of Game 2, the Dodgers bullpen was on point in the NLDS, tossing 22 scoreless innings between the other four games. They might need more of that in order to make it back to the World Series.

Regular Season: 94-68

Postseason Path: 3-1 over No. 5 Kansas City Royals

How They Got Here

Every month was a wildly different story for the Yankees.

In April, Aaron Judge started slow, but Juan Soto was a god while the pitching held up surprisingly well sans Gerrit Cole.

In May, Judge caught fire with 14 home runs and the rotation lost its ever-loving mind, with Luis Gil emerging as a top candidate for AL Rookie of the Year.

In June, Judge continued to rake with 11 more dingers, but that rotation relentlessly crashed and burned, allowing the Orioles to ascend to the top of the AL East.

In July, the whole “So, it’s really just Judge and Soto, eh?” narrative took over as that duo flourished, but the rotation continued to struggle while having Giancarlo Stanton on the IL contributed to a sub-.500 record for the month.

In August, Jazz Chisholm Jr. joined the party and Cole finally started to look like the Cole of yore as they moved back into first place in the division.

In September, Judge and Soto were relatively mortal and bullpen woes were a daily talking point, but they still comfortably won the AL East as Baltimore limped to the finish line.

And now in October, those bullpen woes seem to have vanished, as Luke Weaver, Clay Holmes and Co. completely shut down Kansas City in the first of New York’s two Goliath vs. David showdowns.

Likely Starting Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil/Nestor Cortes

After going seven strong innings in Game 4 on Thursday, Cole presumably won’t be available until Game 2. But rolling with Rodón in Game 1 is hardly the end of the world, even though he did unravel in a hurry in the fourth inning. And it will most likely be Schmidt in Game 3.

But will Cortes be available for Game 4? He landed on the IL in late September with a flexor strain, but has ramped up his intensity in bullpen sessions in hopes of returning to the ALCS roster.

If he’s unable to go, we’ll find out what Gil has left in the tank, after ending the regular season with back-to-back rough outings against Oakland and Pittsburgh. Still, Gil is a much better option than what Cleveland has to offer at the fourth spot in its rotation.

MVP Candidate: Aaron Judge

Dating back to 2020, Judge has a triple-slash of .145/.242/.337 in the postseason, whiffing in 30 of 95 plate appearances in 21 games played. But he did reach base in each of his final three plate appearances of the ALDS, which is a mark he hadn’t hit in October since Game 2 of the 2019 ALDS, 28 postseason games ago.

Maybe that was the beginning of the end of the “Judge ain’t clutch” narrative and he’ll bring the noise in the ALCS (and World Series).

Achilles’ Heel: Bullpen

For four games, this bullpen was awesome. But Weaver has almost no experience as a closer, Holmes had been a train wreck for months prior to the ALDS and Tommy Kahnle limped to the finish line with six runs allowed in eight innings pitched in September.

Maybe they stay hot, or maybe that 1-2-3 punch turns into a punching bag for opposing hitters.

Schedule (All games on FOX/FS1)

• Game 1: New York at Los Angeles, Sunday Oct. 13, 8:15 p.m. ET
• Game 2: New York at Los Angeles, Monday Oct. 14, 4:08 p.m. ET
• Game 3: Los Angeles at New York, Wednesday Oct. 16, 8:08 p.m. ET
• Game 4: Los Angeles at New York, Thursday Oct. 17, TBD start
• Game 5 (if necessary): Los Angeles at New York, Friday Oct. 18, TBD start
• Game 6 (if necessary): New York at Los Angeles, Sunday Oct. 20, TBD start
• Game 7 (if necessary): New York at Los Angeles, Monday Oct. 21, TBD start

Regular-Season Series: Dodgers 4-2 with a +16 run differential

Postseason History: Dodgers won 1988 NLCS, Mets won 2006 NLDS, Mets won 2015 NLDS

Four Key Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups

• Pete Alonso vs. Walker Buehler: 5-for-14, 4 HR, 1.571 OPS
• Jesse Winker vs. Jack Flaherty: 8-for-21, 2 HR, 1.268 OPS
• Mookie Betts vs. NYM’s entire starting rotation (Manaea/Quintana/Severino/Senga): 32-for-97, 6 HR, .330 AVG, .639 SLG
• Shohei Ohtani vs. Edwin Díaz: 0-for-4, 4 K

One Big Storyline: Money Ain’t a Thang

Per Spotrac, the Mets and Dodgers spent more on this season than any other team in baseball. Including their estimated payments for exceeding the luxury tax threshold, the Dodgers are looking at $428 million, while the Mets are slightly north of $450 million.

The only other team north of $300 million was the New York Yankees at $375.5M.

Evidently, it was a great year to try to buy a ring.

Only one of these big spenders can make it to the World Series, though.

Will it be the Mets and Francisco Lindor’s $341 million contract?

Or will it be the Dodgers and the literal $1.39 billion they have committed just to Ohtani, Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto?

X-Factor: The health of the Japanese aces

Yamamoto hasn’t pitched into the sixth inning of a start in more than four months, thanks to missing more than half of the season with a shoulder injury.

But between a shoulder injury to start the year and a calf strain suffered after just one appearance in late July, Kodai Senga didn’t pitch six total innings in the entire regular season, prior to making a surprise return for two innings in Game 1 of the NLDS against Philadelphia.

How much will either team be able to get out of its limited ace?

The answer may well determine who advances.

Schedule (All games on TBS/truTV/MAX)

• Game 1: Cleveland at New York, Monday Oct. 14, 7:38 p.m. ET
• Game 2: Cleveland at New York, Tuesday Oct. 15, 7:38 p.m. ET
• Game 3: New York at Cleveland, Thursday Oct. 17, TBD start
• Game 4: New York at Cleveland, Friday Oct. 18, TBD start
• Game 5 (if necessary): New York at Cleveland, Saturday Oct. 19, TBD start
• Game 6 (if necessary): Cleveland at New York, Monday Oct. 21, TBD start
• Game 7 (if necessary): Cleveland at New York, Tuesday Oct. 22, TBD start

Regular-Season Series: Yankees 4-2 with a +15 run differential

Postseason History: Cleveland won 1997 ALDS, New York won 1998 ALCS, Cleveland won 2007 ALDS, New York won 2017 ALDS, New York won 2020 ALWC, New York won 2022 ALDS

Four Key Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups

• Aaron Judge vs. Active Guardians: 12-for-38, 6 HR, 1.251 OPS
• José Ramírez vs. Gerrit Cole: 12-for-34, 2 HR, 1.129 OPS
• New York’s first five (Torres/Soto/Judge/Wells/Stanton) vs. Alex Cobb: 15-for-46, 6 HR, .326 AVG, .761 SLG
• Emmanuel Clase vs. Current Yankees (including 2022 ALDS): 8-for-39, 0 HR, .205 AVG, .231 SLG

One Big Storyline: David vs. Goliath

While the NLCS will pit the two most free-spending franchises in baseball against one another, the ALCS is quite the drastic case of a Have squaring off with a Have Not.

The Yankees have three players (Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gerrit Cole) on contracts of more than $320M, plus Carlos Rodón on a hardly insignificant $162M deal. All four made at least $27M this season alone, plus Juan Soto’s $31M in his final year of arbitration eligibility before the Yankees try to give him probably more than half a billion dollars this offseason.

And in the small-market corner, you have the Guardians, with literally two players (José Ramírez and Andrés Giménez) on contracts valued at more than $20M.

Not $20M salaries, mind you. J-Ram is making $17M this season while Giménez is only pulling in $5.6M in 2024. In fact, only four players are getting paid more than $6.5M by Cleveland this season, and three of them aren’t even on the roster anymore, with Shane Bieber ($13.125M) recovering from Tommy John surgery and both Jean Segura ($10.5M) and Scott Barlow ($6.7M) released.

Yet, here they are, with a very real chance of taking down the Big Bad Damn Yankees.

X-Factor: Bullpen Production

Whether it was the Guardians or the Tigers winning Game 5 on Saturday, bullpen production was going to be the biggest X-Factor heading into the ALCS.

Because while both of those AL Central teams were anchored by their bullpens—Detroit for the past two months, Cleveland for the entire season—New York secured the AL’s No. 1 seed in spite of what was the eighth-worst bullpen in the majors (dead last among the 12 postseason teams) dating back to May 20, which is when Clay Holmes’ months-long implosion began.

Can the Yankees continue to put up zeroes in the sixth through ninth innings like they did against the Royals? Or will it be the Guardians posting second-half-of-game shutouts while either putting insurance runs or come-from-behind runs on the board against a Yankees’ pen that reverts to its pre-October form?

ALCS: New York Yankees in 5; Juan Soto MVP

It has been 76 years since Cleveland last won a World Series, and it’d be fantastic if they could put an end to what is the longest drought in the sport.

But New York eliminating Cleveland has become an unofficial tradition in recent years, happening in each of 2017, 2020 and 2022, and the divide might be the two teams is probably even wider now than it was in any of those Octobers.

Anything can happen in the postseason. Lane Thomas and David Fry could combine for eight home runs while Aaron Judge and Juan Soto go hitless in a Cleveland sweep.

Maybe midges will rise up and wreak havoc on the Yankees bullpen in a repeat from that 2007 ALDS.

You just never know.

The Yankees are going to have a clear advantage at starting pitcher in probably every game of this series, though, not to mention more big boppers in their lineup. If Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole take care of business in the first two games, it’ll be too much for the Guardians to overcome.

NLCS: Los Angeles Dodgers in 6; Mookie Betts MVP

If the Yankees do advance on the AL side, we’re getting a Subway Series or a Judge-Ohtani showdown, either of which would be incredible theatre.

But we’ll take the Dodgers for what would be just the second World Series clash between No. 1 seeds in the past 11 years, fueled largely by Mookie Betts.

As noted in the previous matchup section, Betts has had quite a bit of success against all four of the starting pitchers that he’ll see in this series, and he finally broke out of his postseason slump with a pair of home runs in the NLDS. Now that he has seen a few leave the yard, he might be about to go on a tear.

The Mets will make things interesting, though. They didn’t come this far to go down without a fight.

But maybe it’ll be in a do-or-die Game 7 that Shohei Ohtani makes his pitching debut with the Dodgers…