Israeli soldiers work on tanks at a staging area in northern Israel near the Israel-Lebanon border, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024.

Israeli Forces Prepare for Escalation at Lebanon Border

By Baz Ratner/AP, CNN

CNN – As Israeli soldiers work on tanks in northern Israel, close to the Lebanon border, the word “limited” is taking on a new and complex meaning.

Israel’s description of its current ground incursion into southern Lebanon as a “limited” operation hints at restraint, but the Biden administration has already suggested that this move, however small, risks becoming a prolonged campaign. History shows that it is hard for militaries to pull back once operations begin, especially in such high-stakes situations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his military must carefully decide when to stop, or they may face escalating commitments that are hard to reverse.

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There’s a risk of momentum—if the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) find the initial advance easy, they might be tempted to continue, especially if Hezbollah seems weakened. On the other hand, if they face resistance, they may argue that pressing forward is more necessary than ever. After two weeks of using advanced technology and calculated attacks against Hezbollah, Israel is now stepping into a different phase of the conflict: a ground incursion.

So far, the Israeli military’s strategy has focused on dismantling Hezbollah’s communications and leadership, including the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. However, this shift from airstrikes to a ground campaign could lead the IDF into a well-prepared trap. Hezbollah has spent years fortifying southern Lebanon with tunnel networks, offering them a defensive advantage. The challenge for Israel will be knowing when to stop, avoiding a drawn-out conflict that could turn into a quagmire. After all, many modern wars that were expected to last just weeks ended up stretching for years.

Smoke billows near a village in southern Lebanon after an Israeli airstrike, as seen from northern Israel on October 1, 2024.

Israel’s military strategy has been brutal but effective so far. However, this next stage requires key decisions from a prime minister known for his hardline stance and who may seek to prolong the conflict to solidify his political power. It’s going to take swift and decisive action for the IDF to dismantle Hezbollah and withdraw quickly before becoming mired in uncertainty.

The U.S. has already warned of the possibility of Iran launching retaliatory missile strikes in response to Israel’s actions, but the threat may not be as severe as it seems. Past Israeli intercepts of similar attacks suggest Iran’s resources and willingness to engage directly are limited for now. However, Iran’s long-term retaliation could manifest in other ways, potentially destabilizing the region further.

Civilians in Lebanon face increased danger as this conflict unfolds. The possibility of a wider war involving Iran remains, though it appears less likely at the moment. As Israel continues its operations, the Biden administration may struggle to curb Netanyahu’s ambitions. U.S. influence over Israel is weakening, and there are concerns about how the situation will play out politically in the U.S., with both parties wary of appearing weak on Israel ahead of elections.

There are signs that Israel may be planning a broader offensive, with speculation that the IDF could push westward toward Tyre, aiming to isolate Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. However, such a move would be challenging given the difficult terrain and potential for heavy resistance.

Israel finds itself at a critical juncture. Led by a prime minister who has often rejected diplomatic solutions, it must now balance the need for a limited operation with the desire to neutralize Hezbollah permanently. The key will be to strike hard but know when to pull back, avoiding the trap that has been set for them.

Netanyahu’s recent decisions, while strategically sound, have raised concerns due to the disregard for civilian casualties. His approach stands in stark contrast to ongoing issues in Gaza, where conflict has become a prolonged, unresolved crisis. To avoid a similar outcome in Lebanon, Israel will need exceptional military discipline and political wisdom in the coming days.

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