The Israeli Ground Incursion into Southern Lebanon: Risks and Complexities

On Tuesday, October 1, 2024, Israeli soldiers were seen preparing tanks in northern Israel, close to the Lebanon border, signaling the next phase in an increasingly complex and volatile military campaign. While Israel has termed its ground incursion into southern Lebanon as “limited,” the term may soon prove inadequate for the scale and risk of the operation. The Biden administration, Israel’s key ally, has already indicated that what begins as a small-scale incursion could rapidly spiral into something far more extensive and prolonged.

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the challenge will be determining how far to push into Hezbollah’s territory and when to pull back. The nature of military operations, especially when encountering varying levels of resistance, often leads to a momentum that is difficult to reverse. If Hezbollah proves weaker than anticipated after weeks of heavy airstrikes, the IDF may be tempted to push forward. If the situation on the ground proves more difficult, it could justify a deeper engagement.

Hezbollah’s Prepared Ground Strategy

After two weeks of technological warfare and calculated airstrikes against Hezbollah, including the simultaneous detonation of communication devices and the reported assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Israel’s military superiority has been evident. However, as the IDF enters southern Lebanon, it faces the danger of falling into a well-prepared trap. Hezbollah has spent over a decade fortifying its position in the region, creating an extensive network of tunnels and defenses that give it a significant home-field advantage.

These tunnels pose a serious challenge to Israeli forces, offering Hezbollah’s fighters mobility and protection in the rugged terrain. While airstrikes and targeted attacks have weakened the militant group, fighting Hezbollah on its own ground could turn into a quagmire for Israel. History has shown that wars initially expected to last weeks often drag on for months or even years.

Calculated Risks and Strategic Dilemmas

Over the past three weeks, Israel’s military operations have been brutal but highly disciplined, demonstrating superior intelligence and operational precision. However, as the conflict moves into a new phase of ground warfare, critical decisions lie ahead for Prime Minister Netanyahu. Known for his maximalist approach, Netanyahu faces a difficult balancing act: achieving military objectives while avoiding a prolonged and costly conflict.

The success of the IDF’s ground offensive depends on its ability to swiftly dismantle Hezbollah’s remaining forces, which may prove to be a more straightforward task than anticipated if the group’s leadership has indeed been decapitated. However, the IDF’s ability to withdraw quickly without getting bogged down will require extraordinary discipline. Netanyahu, whose political survival may hinge on the success of this military campaign, will need to resist the temptation of a prolonged engagement.

Iran’s Potential Involvement

One of the major concerns surrounding Israel’s incursion into southern Lebanon is the possibility of a wider regional war, particularly involving Iran. The U.S. has warned of potential retaliatory missile strikes by Iran on Israel, though such attacks may not be as damaging as feared. In April 2024, Israel successfully intercepted dozens of similar rockets, demonstrating its advanced missile defense capabilities.

Iran, while vocally supportive of Hezbollah, has shown limited willingness or capacity to engage in a broader conflict with Israel at this time. Despite Iran’s sophisticated nuclear program, its immediate ability to deter Israel seems minimal. Nevertheless, the long-term risks of Iranian retaliation cannot be discounted, as Tehran may bide its time before exacting revenge in less predictable and potentially more destabilizing ways.

International Response and U.S. Political Paralysis

As Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon continues, the international community watches with growing concern. The U.S. and European powers have consistently urged restraint, seeking to prevent the conflict from escalating further. However, with U.S. domestic politics in turmoil due to an election year, the Biden administration may have limited influence over Netanyahu’s decisions.

Vice President Kamala Harris, should she win the upcoming presidential election, may opt to reduce U.S. support for Israel’s military operations, slowing the pace of the conflict. Conversely, former President Donald Trump, a potential contender, has expressed a desire to end wars but may also feel compelled to support Israel if the conflict drags on. In the meantime, the White House appears to be learning about significant developments—such as the assassination of Nasrallah—only after they occur.

Strategic Ambitions and the Road Ahead

Netanyahu’s full intentions remain unclear. The closure of towns around Metula in northern Israel and ongoing shelling along the border has led to speculation that the IDF may be aiming to cut off Hezbollah in southern Lebanon by advancing westward toward the city of Tyre. While this maneuver could be strategically appealing, the geography and Hezbollah’s fortified positions make it a daunting task.

The challenge for Israel now is to set clear, achievable objectives and avoid overextension. Netanyahu has shown a willingness to take aggressive military actions, often at the cost of civilian casualties, but the stakes of this operation are higher than ever. If Israel hopes to redefine the security landscape in the north, it must strike a delicate balance between inflicting significant damage on Hezbollah and avoiding entrapment in a prolonged conflict.

Conclusion: The Path to Peace or Prolonged War?

Israel’s incursion into southern Lebanon represents a pivotal moment in its long-standing conflict with Hezbollah. The outcome of this operation will shape the security dynamics of the region for years to come. While Israel’s military might and intelligence have thus far proven superior, the complexities of ground warfare in Hezbollah’s stronghold present significant challenges.

For Israel to emerge from this conflict without becoming ensnared in a quagmire, it will need to exercise extraordinary discipline, both militarily and politically. The prospect of a quick, decisive victory remains uncertain, and the risks of a prolonged war loom large. As Israel continues its operations, the international community will be watching closely, hoping for a resolution that brings lasting peace to a region long plagued by conflict.